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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (17564)	6/11/2001 8:52:34 PM
From: pressboxjr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

So, basically a battle of inflation and de-flation exists? Maybe de-flationary for the latter part of this year and inflationary for next year? That's what it seems like to me at least. I see goods like food/energy (increasing with each day), while the tech stuff (computers, etc) is decreasing. Talk about a headache to figure out.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (17564)	6/11/2001 9:52:46 PM
From: Fiscally Conservative	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev...OT You wrote; "It takes time for excess money to put pressure on goods, particularly when those goods are in abundant supply (over capacity). Still, the recent inflation rate at 3.3% is twice what it was at the through few years back. Part of my mid 2002 (or later) bear market is assuming that the fed will have to start and tighten to reign in inflation, but they will have to do it not when the GDP is growing at 4% plus, but an anemic 2.5% to 3%, bringing on a real recession which will find not just corporations tightening, as is the case now, but the consumer batting down the hatches." ------------- Can one assume that should this be the scenario then the housing market should stay strong into mid 2002? There has been a huge Bull run in the real estate market the past few years the likes of which remind me of the late 80's. Given the financial markets meltdown last year as oppose to the real estate market's explosive upward climb I wonder if this tight reign on inflation via the Fed will keep the trend alive until early to mid 2002.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (17564)	6/11/2001 11:58:38 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

cagle.slate.msn.com

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (17564)	6/12/2001 4:17:40 AM
From: Kailash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

US economy faces hard landing By Alan Beattie in Basle June 11 2001 20:56GMT Financial Times The US economy risks a hard landing unless growth picks up elsewhere in the world, the Bank for International Settlements said on Monday. Imbalances in the US economy - the huge current account deficit, high private debt and low savings ratio - would have to be redressed, according to the annual report of the organisation, which is the central banks' central bank. Andrew Crockett, the bank's general manager, said a prolonged U-shape downturn rather than a sharp V-shaped recovery was most likely. While there had undoubtedly been a sustained rise in US productivity growth, demand had run ahead of supply. "It is important not to exaggerate on the productivity side and plan a demand expansion on that basis," he said. He said a rise in economic growth in the rest of the world and a gradual depreciation of the dollar would enable the US to make a smoother, though more prolonged, transition to stability. "But if these things do not happen, the risk remains of more disruption, and that is something we have always warned about." The BIS said larger and more liquid financial markets had allowed the US to live beyond its means longer than in the past. Greater financial sophistication meant there was "more scope for disruptive adjustments as well as more productive use of capital", Mr Crockett said. The bank's annual report also suggested the US Federal Reserve had less room to cut interest rates than hitherto, citing signs of incipient inflationary pressure such as the increase in long-term US interest rates since March. news.ft.com