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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Lock-Up Expiration Hell Portfolio -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dalroi who wrote (99)	6/12/2001 2:34:10 AM
From: tuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1005

stefaan, >>well snop is a variant of snip (small position) in which the o was pressed instead of the i :-) << Time to stop swilling that Dom Perignon, then. It seems to be affecting your coordination :-D OK, enough of the humor at stefaan's expense. It's time for Pain Therapeutics. Why this one first and not POZN? Easy: it's near all time lows, and any time one gets the opportunity to enter lower than Peter Suzman, one should consider that opportunity carefully. If that were the extent of my DD, I could buy it tomorrow and sleep well. Shameless guruism isn't my style, though, so I here offer some links/commentary to serve as a springboard for DD on/valuation of PTIE. Peter's overview Message 15857861 >>PTIE has never recovered from its post-IPO blues. They are playing in an interesting space (pain relief) with what seems to me to be an innovative idea - the combo of morphine and an ultra-low dose of an approved opiod antagonist. Pretty low risk of non-approval for safety reasons, and if they can demonstrate efficacy they should do well.<< How bad are those blues? siliconinvestor.com Ouch! Let's hope management, which is seasoned (Genentech, ArQule, Xoma, Exelixis, BMY, Elan), does indeed demonstrate efficacy for the hurting shareholders. Wonder if any have enrolled in the trials? The pain is in part due to managerial bailing, but it's chiefly early investors and VC: insidertrader.com Kind of explains the chart, no? How obvious was it? This one was shorted well in advance. Check out the timeline at ipolockup.com PTIE is nowhere near cash or book. Some concern, because they're funding all their trials. While their model of keeping the rights until commercialization provides plenty of leverage (plus they tend to use some cheap off patent stuff such as tramadol, coming off patent this year), it also means they will have to dilute. It would be worth getting a handle on their burn rate. biz.yahoo.com Obviously, efficacy is important. Two phase IIbs are now ongoing; endpoints are safety and efficacy. So important results are due soon. If they're good, they can get good terms on their financing. Would insiders buy if they saw good results? Anyhow, here's a link to their publications; just cut and paste into PubMed: paintrials.com Competition? From the 10-K: >>Competing products may provide greater therapeutic benefits for a specific indication, or may offer comparable performance at a lower cost. Companies that currently sell generic or proprietary opioid formulations include Roxane Laboratories, Purdue Pharma, Janssen Pharmaceutica, Knoll Laboratories, Abbott Laboratories, Cephalon, Endo Pharmaceuticals, Elkins-Sinn, Watson Laboratories, Alza Pharmaceuticals, Ortho-McNeil Pharmaceutical and Forest Pharmaceuticals. Alternative technologies are being developed to increase opioid potency, as well as alternatives to opioid therapy for pain management, several of which are in clinical trials or are awaiting approval from the FDA. Such alternatives include Elan's SNX-111 (Tuck's note: the old Neurex sea snail toxin derivative; not doing well in trials?) and Endo Pharmaceuticals' Morphidex(R). << The 10-K, incidentally, explains their business model, technology, clinical status, and markets quite well and is highly recommended reading. Uncluttered by those inscrutable partnership agreements with all the good parts deled: sec.gov I have no idea how low it can go. Of prime importance for timing the entry is a feel for when they would announce results from that PIIb. Just seeing an abatement in the flow of 144s might be a sign. Until then, I expect it to retest its lows and then some. Peter, you still here? Any ideas on the timing of this event? Burn rate? From the 10-K: >>We initiated two additional phase IIb clinical trials of PTI-555 in the fourth quarter of 2000 in which we plan to enroll a total of approximately 400 patients experiencing acute post-surgical pain. We designed these new trials to further demonstrate the drug's safety and efficacy in different clinical settings of pain.<< Cheers, Tuck