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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (4876)	6/12/2001 4:08:17 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

If there was any doubt that the telecom infrastructure is vastly overbuilt, Nokia's preannouncement will hopefully give certain investors the message again loud and clear. IMO until we see the next generation of phones (which may be two to four years away), this is not going to be an exciting marketplace. Yesterday, a variety of semi equipment stocks pre-announced. This group has held up fairly well and is usually one of the first tech groups to turn cyclically. But there is absolutely no sign of orders moving up here. Utilization rates are well below 50% in some major industry sectors. The upturn is probably not until 2002 in orders and I'm being wildly optimistic here. Earnings will come even later. IMO the weight of June warnings will be unrelenting for the next few weeks. Companies that want to limit their pre-announcements to one warning are waiting until they have a clear fix on June. Delays in warnings do not mean anything positive. Bottom line, June is going to be a difficult month for the Bulls. Any relief over the next couple of weeks is likely to be temporary. Got Gold? Got Guts? Got Gold Stocks?