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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (44032)	6/12/2001 4:31:29 PM
From: that_crazy_doug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

<< expect well over 25% by the end of Q3... >> Since the athlon has been out, AMD's only gotten up to 21% market share in about a year and a half. Q3 99 to Q1 01. Before the Athlon was out, I believe we had marketshare around 16%, so over 1 1/2 years we had an increase of 5%. Thus, I'm very skeptical that we'll get 25% market share by the end of Q3, 6 months after we hit 21%. << AMD has at least a couple months of Athlon 4 sales before Tualatin shows up. Even with Tualatin, Intel can barely match the speed of a Athlon 4 and the Athlon 4 is still on .18u. Palomino desktop should out scale Tualatin by a couple hundred Mhz as well. >> Basically all last year AMD was smoking Intel on the desktop performance, and I didn't see the share budge a whole lot, so I'm unconvinced that it will be different this time. The 2 things we do have going for us, is that we are competing in 2 more areas that are going from 0 to > 0 in their respective markets (laptops/servers), however I don't see any reason why we'd grow on the desktop now vs previously, and I don't see laptops/servers making up enough to get us 4% more share. I guess it depends how we did this quarter too. If we're sitting around 23% share at the end of the quarter, then perhaps 25 isn't unfeasible, but I'll still be surprised and very pleased.