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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (693)	6/13/2001 12:18:46 AM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95853

Until the bottom falls out of the SOX again I will not fear to trade the range. On a technical basis I believe it is often a rational approach to run both long and short term charts to see where actual support would lie in the event of a true global economy meltdown. Five year charts for many of these stocks indicate that if my assumptions about our trading range are wrong that these stocks will be falling a great deal further than 20%. Imagine the SOX at roughly 200 instead of today's close of 654. If demand does not pick up then it could happen.The FED is cutting rates and that is supposed to help in general within 6 to 9 months of the rate cuts. However I believe that Japan for instance has gone as far as they can to fiscally stimulate their economy. Thus far to no avail. What happens if we reach the end of the line on interest rate cuts and orders do not begin to climb for technology companies? LU is now considered to have a junk level credit rating: finance.yahoo.com In that worst case scenario both LLTC and MXIM could trade as low as 10. Not a pretty picture but a possibility in a worst case scenario based on 5 year charts. I think it is both reasonable and prudent to buy these stocks on dips and hope to be holding when the economy recovers. If it does not recover quickly enough and I was nervous then I would be a seller when the high end of the trading range presents itself again. Right now the recovery is being pushed back further into later this year or early next year in most people's expectations. Very few long investors are willing to admit it just might not happen or that if it does it could be very slow growth. Goodnight all, RtS