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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roebear who wrote (91506)	6/13/2001 9:33:56 AM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Roebear. Think it comes down to stock picking. So many industry observers in the financial community tend to focus on the price trend in an overall sector that it's easy to overlook and miss some great individual opportunities. Although a few of us here correctly and repeatedly called the important decline in the NG market - right at the turn -many months ago, there have been a few excellent performers on the long side in energy during the same period. You've done well with TESOF and I've gotten good results with LOILY, and MWP (which interestingly enough - in light of your post - IS a NG infrastructure play). Only problem with MWP is very light volume makes it inappropriate as a ST trading vehicle. Like LOILY it's a LT holding for me. When I was a broker with one of the major W.S. firms, we used to call such stocks "special situations" to distinguish them from the projected price direction in the rest of their sector or sub-sector. Cheers, Isopatch

To: Roebear who wrote (91506)	6/13/2001 9:49:23 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Roebear - re: devils advocate in the Patch... Roebear; I think 95% of people completely misunderstood what I've been saying about the patch. I'm NEUTRAL - with a "bearish bias" here, as far as a rating on the patch. I agree that there are niches to play long; just as their are niches to play short - with a broadstroke neutral stance here. The primary reason for neutrality... of which "neutrality" means being primarially in CASH & that you've allready taken substantial, if not most, or even all profits off the oilpatch table - for Nat Gas during last last week of December's euphoric blow off top that we called here on this thread & for the service & drillers - during this last move back to OSX 135's resistance. My main criticism is that no one, or few anyway... were looking far enough forward on the horizon for the "arrival" of peak cycle eps & cfps & that they weren't quick enough in reacting to the API & AGA builds in getting out & going neutral if not even short for a few trades. I said very clearly; that I'd have no problem in being bullish once again & going long again; BUT ! - NOT before BOTH the US economy (if not the Global economies as well) turn upward & untill the API/AGA builds reverse trend. There is no danger of the OSX blasting thru 175 anytime soon here & the risk is still that all rallies will get sold into at 135ish technical resistance yet again, or that we get a blow off if the supply build trends continue - as they will sooner, rather than later - bring commodity price levels down & down hard if that trend continues much longer. We're seeing lots of rotation within the patch - that's a tradeable play, but not an easy one. But, there's yet another "wave" of cyclical oriented patch investors who have their finger on the cycle exit trigger here & we're only 3-4 weeks of continued supply builds away from that happening imho. That's a major risk to avoid imo. Last nights 13m boe draw was just what the sector needed & they need a couple of more - for at least a net draw of 20M boe over the next 4-6 weeks imo. Then - maybe we can form a solid base here & move into a higher trading range. But, even then the risk vs reward profile will not be that attractive... one eye must allways remain fixed on the exit door & the sell button from here forward in the cycle imo. I will remain patient; some short trades, some puts on NG plays; maybe a quick little longsided trade here in some offshore drillers; but just nicking away - nothing huge... the next "huge bet" I make is NET SHORT the OSX stocks and bet the farm; that - "that" will be the only "Big AND Easy" money trade left in this sector imo... I think maybe we've got 30 points upside potential from OSX 135's recent resistance levels; but an easy 60 points downside upon cycle rollover from that 135 level & ultimately maybe 80-90 points on a downsided short trade from the ultimate potential top at 165ish if seen... that's a negative 2:1 to 3:1 ratio and that's not an attractive bet in a cyclical sector imho... a "tradeable" and a "do-able" bet; but not a smart, nor savy one... the risk literally ramps the later we get in the cycle. The real smart & time-effective managers of money exited the patch last APril 2000 at OSX 120... "they" got the max-bang for their oilpatch buck. They avoided all the risk & didn't sit for 15 months for nothing (VBG)... For 90% of traders - that very early "no-brainer" exit is the way to play the patch imo. Conversely, the XAU has 90 points upside to it's 5 time cycle top in the last 15 years and only 15-18 points downside here to it's ALLTIME LOWS".... now "THAT" - that's an attractive risk vs reward bet (VBG). I'll take the positive 6:1 ratio's vs a negative 2-3:1 ratio anytime on a cyclical sector bet and let's remember - these are , were and will allways be - first & foremost cyclicals....and being a contrarian on entries AND exit's has history supporting you. I think the guest analyst on CNBC this am - Ned (forget the last name ?) from Fleet/1st Botston ? - get's it... he mentioned he just doesn't see ANY evidence that the Fed Cuts are gaining traction & they aren't... he see's the inflationary inevitability of all the liquidity infusion, he see's the credit quality problems, the over-valuations here - especially in light of the US Corporate Profits recession and he see's Europe rolling over & a tapped out US Consumer....and he see's 1974-Deja Vu all over again ... tic toc~ he's right.