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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (43449)6/13/2001 11:56:40 AM
From: StockHawk  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
analysis of Wall Street research recommendations

Hi Jurgis,

Good points. But any analysis of Street recs. will be flawed no matter what the methodology. That's due to some of the very reasons you site. What does a downgrade from strong buy to buy mean. Is that a code for sell or for holding or what? It is the very ambiguity of the recommendations that renders them difficult to analyze.

The easiest way is to set up portfolios where you only buy when a strong buy rec is issued and then sell when the stock is downgraded to hold. But that's been done, and the the results are a train wreck. The strong buys come near the tops, the holds near the bottoms. Wall St. has responded to this by saying that investors must look past the words and understand the code - that any downgrade is a sell signal. This recent analysis went a step further but it is still not perfect, and we'll never get a perfect analysis.

Personally, I think reading brokerage reports is dangerous. A person is most likely to read one either as they are about to invest in a company or after they have invested in an effort to confirm their decision. In most cases the glowing report gives a false sense of comfort. But that's just me. Other smart people will tell you not to believe anything you read on message boards. So who knows. We're all responsible for our own decisions and whenever we put our faith in others we assume risks. Each must decide if the risk/reward profile is acceptable to them.

StockHawk