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To: Cooters who wrote (100365)6/14/2001 3:38:10 PM
From: David E. Taylor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
Cooters:

I guess GS/CSFB would rather hold 190 million shares of AWE than $3 billion of AT&T debt. I wonder if that reflects a fear that AT&T's debt will become Chapter 11 style worthless, or a belief that there is more potential return from AWE stock than AT&T debt?

As an OT, I'm also pondering whether T might be worth a few $$ fling here. As far as I can tell, around 1.760 billion shares of AWE will be distributed to T shareholders on 7/9/01 (if that's when it gets done) - that's the 2.310 billion total AWE shares outstanding less the 360 million IPO'd last year less the $3 billion worth (190 million shares) that GS/CSFB are going to abscond with (like MSDW absconded with Agere shares in lieu of LU debt).

Since current AWE shareholders will get a 1:1 exchange of the tracking stock for shares in the independent wireless company, that will leave around 0.47 shares of AWE to be distributed to T shareholders on 7/9/01 - worth around $7.40 per T share at today's AWE price. That leaves the remaining parts of T's business - cable, broadband, consumer, business, internet service - valued at around $13/share.

Seems to me there could be some upside to that $13/share, though with T's earnings declining from $1.74 in FY 2000 to an estimated $0.20 for FY 2001, maybe not. If there is a pop in T, my guess is that it won't occur until after 7/9/01 when the masses suddenly see T trading at $13.

David T.