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To: Greg h2o who wrote (33266)6/14/2001 9:08:07 AM
From: Greg h2o  Respond to of 42804
 
interesting article on more than one point: 1. zuma's exposure to LAN, and 2. UTStarcom (anyone remember?)

By Eric Moskowitz

Wagering on LAN over WAN


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Fund managers are a restless lot these days. They want to put up big performance numbers, but they are struggling to find stocks with strong momentum. However, that hasn't stopped managers from trying to find the Next Big Thing.

One group of stocks that fund managers have been talking up lately is local area network (LAN) companies. Mind you, the LAN bet isn't a new one. But Dennis McKechnie, portfolio manager for the PIMCO Innovation Fund, says he is buying into local area networking companies like Extreme Networks (Nasdaq: EXTR) and Marvell Technology (Nasdaq: MRVL). "These LAN-sized markets are huge and not going away," says Mr. McKechnie. "Telecom companies still see completing these last-mile networks as a priority."

Since April, Extreme and Marvell's stocks have more than doubled. On April 3, Extreme hit a 52-week low of $12.27, but it has since ballooned to $32.30. Marvell's stock has shot up from $8.53 to $25.25 in that same period. I watch volume pretty closely in this seesaw market, and last week Marvell's shares rose on above-average volume following a big decline the week before. Such "buying on the dip" with strong volume indicates that in all likelihood, institutional investors are still in the stock.

UTSTARCOM IS DA BOMB
Mr. McKechnie also manages the Global Innovation Fund, and he is betting on UTStarcom (Nasdaq: UTSI), which sells Cisco Systems's (Nasdaq: CSCO) networking products in China and is a LAN systems integrator. The Alameda, California-based communications equipment maker is one of the fund's top ten holdings. Other managers also smell a winner: UTStarcom's stock has doubled so far this year, and revenues and earnings grew at 100 percent-plus levels last year. Its price-to-earnings ratio for 2001 is a respectable 35, and because of the large infrastructure opportunity in China to build out networks, investors don't se em ready to abandon this company.

Michael D. Cohen, co-fund manager of the Alpha Analytics Digital Future Fund, likes what he calls the "LAN angle" as well. "Stocks such as Marvell and Extreme are better buys at this point than WAN [wide area network] plays such as Juniper Networks (Nasdaq: JNPR) because of the duration of the project." He explains that enterprise LAN projects are much shorter in duration than WAN ones, so it is easier for companies to secure financing. "Especially so in light of all the Fed rate moves," he says.



To: Greg h2o who wrote (33266)6/14/2001 9:20:23 AM
From: Sector Investor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42804
 
<<but i'll have to dig that up... >>

Please do. What time this morning will you have that checked? <g>



To: Greg h2o who wrote (33266)6/14/2001 9:30:36 AM
From: Sector Investor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42804
 
Well, looking at the BLS numbers and my Triplexor post earlier, the BLS FTTC deployments just have to be the bulk of LMNE's Q1 14% for MCNY. Now MCNY percentage was down from 18% in Q4, I believe - but Q1 is historically light for FTTC. Perhaps we are both right. If a slowdown occurs, the MCNY percent may not grow back as fast, but the BLS deployment puts a fat buffer against too big a drop there.