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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (17895)	6/14/2001 10:30:20 AM
From: James Calladine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

NAZ--MORE GRIST FOR THE MILL: (from Briefing) <<<The Nasdaq Composite: It's been 40 sessions now that the Nasdaq has traded in a range between the 2,000 level and 2,328. The last time we assessed the Nasdaq we noted the index has been consistently touching higher highs and higher lows. We also mentioned however, one important exception to this pattern. The June 7 high at Nasdaq 2,264 failed to eclipse the prior closing high of 2,314 which had been carved out on May 22. For the time being, that exception remains just that -- an exception. Yet this is worth keeping in mind because the Nasdaq's response to near-term support will be critical to determining whether the trading range is intact. As can frequently occur, there are two views to the way the Nasdaq chart is shaping up. The bearish view: The Nasdaq is in the process of forming a bearish head and shoulders pattern. The left shoulder is the May 2 high at 2,220... the head is the May 22 high at 2,314... and that lower June 7 high at 2,264 represents the right shoulder. Assuming this is the case, traders should be wary near current levels. If the current uptrend/trading range is broken, there is the potential for significant downside from current levels. Possible downside targets include: 1) Nasdaq 2,000 which is the bottom of the current range, 2) the April 17 gap from point at 1,923 and 3) closing support around Nasdaq 1,850 which had been a key retracement. The bullish view: The strongest argument for Nasdaq bulls is the index continues to carve out higher lows. The lower high at 2,264 is either an aberration in the trend (charts aren't perfect unfortunately) or simply part and parcel of an intact trading range. On Tuesday, June 12 the Nasdaq received a solid test of near-term support on the Nokia (NOK) warning. The index not only held the 2,100 level but it pulled 65 points off its intraday low to close at the flatline. At current levels, the Nasdaq is oversold and market sentiment is turning negative again which means the index is due for a bounce. Those are the two views. The next few sessions will be crucial for determining which of the two proves accurate. The Nasdaq pre-market indicator is showing the index will get an immediate test of support in the 2,105 level. Whether this level holds on a closing basis is likely to be a key determinant of the Nasdaq's near-term direction. If 2,105 should break, subsequent support at 2,085 remains a possibility for a very near-term last stand. Until we see something to indicate otherwise, Briefing.com continues to remain bullish on the Nasdaq's near-term direction. Nonetheless, it's useful to be aware of the two technical perspectives as they can be helpful for decision making once intraday market action unfolds. -- Michael Ashbaugh, Briefing.com>>> Namaste! Jim