To: Clint E. who wrote (32787 ) 6/15/2001 2:33:57 AM From: Johnny Canuck Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 68978 15:22 ET ****** Emulex (EMLX) 31.79 -2.69: It's been two months since we issued positive comments on this maker of storage infrastructure products. Since then, the shares have returned 107% which which raises the question of whether it remains a solid buy at current levels. Sentiment on the storage industry has improved substantially over the past two months. Based on reports from businesses in the sector, there is increasing evidence that the market for storage area networks (SANs) will accelerate by the fourth quarter. Notably, Emulex largely defers revenue recognition of shipments associated with channel inventory and OEM stocking inventory until its products are actually shipped out by its customers. This means the company is positioned to deliver a quick revenue recovery when industry conditions do improve. According to IDC, the market for Fibre Channel host bus adapters (HBAs), one of EMLX' core businesses, is expected to expand from approximately $270 million in calendar 1999 to $1.8 billion in calendar 2003. Emulex is the clear leader in Fiber Channel HBAs, increasing its share of this market to 34% in calendar year 2000. This represents nearly twice the share of the company's nearest competitor. This morning, Thomas Weisel was out with an upgrade on EMLX to Buy from Market Perform. The firm is citing increased interest in larger SANs noted by both McData (MCDT) and Brocade Communications (BRCD). Additionally, TWP notes the strong attendance at a recent SAN users conference. It's difficult not to believe that EMLX has a solid market position in a very attractive market. The question then becomes valuation. At current prices, EMLX trades at 58.8x 2002 earnings estimates. Note the word "estimates". Analysts tend to trail sector turnarounds which suggests current estimates are likely to rise. While we would hesitate to add positions aggressively at current levels, we believe EMLX has substantial upside potential for true long-term investors. Definitely one to keep an eye on.-- Michael Ashbaugh, Briefing.com