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Technology Stocks : John, Mike & Tom's Wild World of Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (2375)	6/14/2001 12:23:39 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2850

Hi Tom: I heard on a weather forecast last week or early this week (a local channel in CT) the projections for the number of tropical storms increased due to a lack of el nina and warmer Atlantic water temps. Not sure of the new #. John & I had started out with a discussion on P&C insurers, gov't flood insurance and I started to continue it on the thread. I think I started it by indicating I like P&C insurers cause they have been able to raise rates which bodes well for the bottom line. Over the last 2 years personal line carriers (auto and homeowners) have had competitive pressure with State Farm pushing for market share at the expense of margins (this in additon to excess capicity in the market) and it seems State Farm has been easing off of this. Then from a timing perspective there is risk in investing in a PC company this time of year due to the risk of a CAT (not just the hurricanes of course, a major storm with tornados can also do severe damage). The warmer the climate the more storms we can have. A CAT is typically an event which results in $100 million or more of damage. Normally a PC Insurer's surplus is @ risk through October but the best time to invest (except for last march when many were selling below book value) timing wise is @ the end of a season. With no major CAT's (companies can't accrue for these but they do build normal loss exposure into their earnings projections) a company can do well earnings wise in the 4th qtr. Have to go. Longest post I've had in a couple of weeks and this still doesn't go into enough detail. Hey Jackson needs to meet Ms. Grace. She's a pistol. Best Tim