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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1883)6/14/2001 4:39:53 PM
From: fut_trade  Respond to of 12411
 
The major indices have top formations on their daily charts. I'm expecting weakness for a while. Looking to short near resistance or after minor rallies.



To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1883)6/14/2001 9:33:49 PM
From: Chip McVickar  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 12411
 
A Clip from Hahn's Corner

hahnscorner.com

Updated: Wednesday, June 13, 2001 9:46 PM

Strike Price Magnets and “Fed Speak” Galore

Before we discuss the substantial market moving events emanating from the Federal Reserve, it's important for everyone to be aware of a unique situation in the derivatives market.

The open interest of the DJX (representing the DIA tracking stock of the DJIA) is posted below. There are natural magnets for options' expiration Friday at $110, $108 and $100, which correlate with Dow 11,000, 10,800 and 10,000. Normally, there would be no reason to expect a move below 10,800.

However, from a greed standpoint, the option writers have a very large motivation to let the market fall to Dow 10,000. There are more than 50,000 $100 strike call contracts “in the money”. It would be rare to reward that many contracts with unchallenged profits. (It is true there are 70,000 $100 strike worthless puts “out of the money”, but, they don't come into play unless the DJIA drops below 10K by Friday's close, which is very unlikely.) But, a drop of 800 points to the 10,000 level in two days is not unprecedented and it would maximize the profits of the call writers by taking all of the “in the money” premium from the call buyers. Just so you are aware....