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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (5263)	6/14/2001 11:20:09 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

I've been following the daily TRIN: todays number was 1.99. Indicative of near panic selling. chart.yahoo.com^STI.N&g=d This site shows historical data for TRIN, from which can be calculated the ARMS Index. A 10 day moving average of TRIN. After todays selloff, the ARMS Index now sits at 1.42, a stones throw from the mythical 1.5 level. This would presume to portend a major reversal in market direction. Warp

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (5263)	6/15/2001 12:51:12 AM
From: William JH	Respond to of 23153

CC, I appreciate the information you have been posting about the EMS providers. On May 25th I shorted CLS, SLR, and FLEX based on your posts. Made a profit on all three, but covered two days too soon - missed the big move. Hope you will continue to keep us informed. Best regards, WJH

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (5263)	6/18/2001 2:35:11 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Respond to of 23153

I have been following the EMS's closely and have been shorting the snot out of them since you enlightened me a few months back. Added some shorts last week and today. Can you give a hint on who still has the big inventory problem? My guess would be that either Lucent and Nortel are two of their customers, or Nokia is a big one. All the industries are in trouble. PC's, Cell phones, routers, switches, you name it and it isn't selling. Sure wouldn't want to be long any chip makers here. This cycle looks MUCH worse to me than the last two I invested through. To make matters worse chip makers aren't cutting capex, which means the down cycle is likely to be much deeper and longer than in past cycles. They will be bringing on more excess capacity when there is no demand. As I'm sure you know, when you have astronomical fixed costs (like a fab) you run it balls out even if you make almost nothing per unit of production. Then there is Asia. If Asia is slowing down, as HWP recently claimed in their earnings warning, then this cycle is nowhere near the bottom. JNPR might still be a good short, even here. I hear Cisco has adopted a "golden hatchet" strategy which is decimating JNPR's sales. Have heard phrases like "We'll buy your Juniper equipment and replace it if you become a Cisco shop". How can Juniper possibly compete under those conditions? They simply aren't big enough. I have been riding down a large short position since the mid 50's a month ago. Believe it will be in the mid teens by late August, and it might never recover.