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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: s berg who wrote (78768)	6/15/2001 9:36:14 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

s berg: What I am asking is whether you can distinguish a bear market rally from a new bull market by gauging the depth of the subsequent pull back or whether you have to wait longer and make the determination using hindsight. You can only know for sure via "hindsight", anyone that tells you differently...well aahh you know...<g> However, you can take advantage of bear rallies that may result in a new bull move by reducing your holding periods. Regards, LG

To: s berg who wrote (78768)	6/15/2001 5:17:46 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

s berg: Congrats for getting on the SI "cool posts" list... Regards, LG

To: s berg who wrote (78768)	6/15/2001 7:31:51 PM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

The bear is very well alive. Most folks forget that it takes years for a bear to fully work itself through the market. And even if we take out record highs on the DOW and go back to 2500 or even 4000 on the NAS - this does not mean the bear is dead. All this means is the FED has printed so much money - thus creating massive liquidity and floating markets higher - and prolonged the normal cycle of fiscal markets. What the FED is doing here is totaly new, and that is avoiding the normal course of recession and a bear market. The reason IMO - a NEW PRESIDENT!!! No doubt about it that this is playing in here. Just because the FED reinflates the bubble does not mean we have averted the bear. The markets can go to new highs and come crashing down so fast people will wonder what hit them. The problem is the bottoms could be so much lower than if the FED just let this cycle plays itself out in a slow and normal fashion. Ah the experiements with fiscal policy. Watch and learn. We are in a massive and dangerous economic history lesson right now. West

To: s berg who wrote (78768)	6/17/2001 4:53:07 AM
From: Joseph Pareti	Respond to of 99985

Re it is a good time to think about how to use TA to tell if the bear is dead. For an investor the real questions is how fast MY stocks will recover. IMO it's of little value knowing whether the bear is dead; how about being more selective instead, e.g. : (hint log scales are more useful here than linear ones :-) M$FT : 1/2 of peak INTC : 40% of peak Lucent Technologies : 1/12 of peak some godzilla.com : 1/100 to 1/1000 of peak Bottom line: despite the enormous manipulations by the money managers and ANALysts things are falling in place based on their business value.