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Strategies & Market Trends : Jim's Nasdaq100 Special as a basket. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (2002)	6/16/2001 9:50:33 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 2103

Hi Donald; High Dollar with last weeks down draft , most TA is showing the NDX short term oversold, however I have doubts about taht. The A/D in the NDX Friday was A 58/ D41 unchanged 1, and the average stock price was up 9 cents However the VOLUME was "very" heavy on the Down stocks dollar wise 17.9 Bil traded down and only 14.5 bil up. ( real trin on NDX was 1.75 ) The dollar index rallied back up .4 of 1% and that may have saved a deeper sell off. All the noise aside the dollar is critical to which way we go, however when the BIG companies complain of a high dollar killing profits, stocks always get in trouble. The value of our stock market is tied so much to foreign investors that when the dollar falls they bail out. I'm surprised the dollar got as high as it did with all the rate cuts..there must be a lot of shorts on it. I heard one pundit predict a 25% drop in the dollar..( rather extreme ) but even if he is half right that would drop the big caps to new lows. ------------------------ While new highs seem to be out doing new lows at this point I think that indicates how washed out the lows are , but the new highs are just making the indexes dependent on a narrow ( top heavy ) few and if they roll over the total market cap can fall fast . So maybe a short term bounce about Tuesday but I'm worried about a hard down draft hitting latter and when no one expects it. Jim P.S. did you see the volume on CSCO ? However MSFT because of her price effected the dollar tick more. here is a look at the 41 down stocks Friday..Price X Volume -------------- Symbol Last Chg Volume DOWN 41 stocks MSFT 68.02 -0.88 54246200 3,689,826,524 CSCO 16.65 -1.09 116650496 1,942,230,758 CIEN 40.14 -4.53 35388200 1,420,482,348 JDSU 12.44 -1.37 82851200 1,030,668,928 AMAT 49.91 -1.09 20592500 1,027,771,675 QCOM 49.35 -2.15 17188500 848,252,475 DELL 24.32 -0.72 34148300 830,486,656 VRTS 59.96 -0.06 12854400 770,749,824 SUNW 15.19 -0.31 45061300 684,481,147 JNPR 31.14 -1.16 20362200 634,078,908 WCOM 15.8 -0.30 27945700 441,542,060 MXIM 47.14 -1.43 8152900 384,327,706 BRCM 31.92 -1.12 11872200 378,960,624 SANM 21.26 -1.15 16559600 352,057,096 MERQ 54.79 -0.04 5400600 295,898,874 LLTC 46.89 -0.63 5851700 274,386,213 TLAB 24.51 -1.20 10537700 258,279,027 PMCS 27.66 -1.59 9219500 255,011,370 AMCC 15.42 -1.17 16444200 253,569,564 TMPW 55.61 -2.36 4539200 252,424,912 CEFT 50.27 -0.54 4645100 233,509,177 NXTL 14.25 -0.19 13133300 187,149,525 NTAP 14.74 -0.33 12096300 178,299,462 VTSS 18.98 -0.64 7869200 149,357,416 EXDS 4.61 -0.40 31001300 142,915,993 YHOO 16.01 -0.46 8630200 138,169,502 ADLAC 41 -1.13 2771400 113,627,400 MCLD 3.53 -0.27 31599900 111,547,647 ADCT 7.26 -0.15 13741900 99,766,194 AMZN 12.49 -0.80 7671600 95,818,284 BMET 45.09 -1.12 2049100 92,393,919 LVLT 7.62 -0.34 11220300 85,498,686 PALM 5.14 -0.36 14497000 74,514,580 INKT 8.53 -0.22 5930500 50,587,165 MFNX 3.49 -0.06 10791000 37,660,590 COMS 4.62 -0.25 8075900 37,310,658 PMTC 10.76 -0.04 3184100 34,260,916 BVSN 4.57 -0.08 7367800 33,670,846 ARBA 4.82 -0.31 6225400 30,006,428 RNWK 10.39 -0.31 2440800 25,359,912 XOXO 2.44 -0.07 7419000 18,102,360 Totals 41 stocks down $17,995,013,349 ---------------------------- and like I said the 58 up stocks only had $14,518,920,971 dollars traded ------------------------------- P.S 2 the way I do trin is more extream ( both ways) regular trin calculations do A/D -----( diveded by ) up/dn volume with no consideration of the "price" of the a/d stocks. so it don't have Dollars in it. Mine does.

To: donald sew who wrote (2002)	6/22/2001 10:46:55 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2103

Donald; Just a few Thoughts.. Well I can see the mutual funds are doing a re-balance at this time...even in the NDX they are trying to cull out losers and buy winners , ( or the most liquid )..lots of rotation going on. It's a sign that a bottom is "trying" to build; however we wind up with fewer stocks supplying the most market cap, & if it don't work it's not to healthy. In a real bull market there is "not" so much rotation, some stocks out run others but not at the expense of others being sold off. we need to get to where at least 80% of stocks in any index are up just a tad in a months time. And then for 50% of them to hold above that point ; like we may have a down month latter but just as long as 50% don't give up the first months gain they made; Then I would think we could have made a bottom but that's not the case at this time, ( At least not in the NDX ) So we could well re-test the April lows before this is over. I'm using several paper portfolios..and the NDX & one I started on May 7th needs to keep 50 of the stocks above the point they had on may 7th. even if it's just a tad, however only 38 of them have held up. While the NDX has only gave up 6.73% from May 7th, the Dollar volume weighted index ( my mo mo ) has gave up 11.54% , that's not good as the 4.81% negative spread tells me that it's to few stocks trying to hold up the market cap index. If it were the other way around with the NDX down 11.54% and the Dollar volume only down 6.73% I would be buying hand over fist. Stock Traders in the NDX ( swingers ) for the most part are lossing more money than the Index indicates since May 7th. Jim Jim