To: John Paquet who wrote (50218 ) 6/16/2001 1:27:17 PM From: Rocket Red Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 62347 A Black Day for NortelOutlook for telecom sector 'sort of a lost cause' Dave Ebner03:32 GMT-04:00 Saturday, June 16, 2001 Nortel Networks Corp. and the troubled telecommunications equipment sector face a dismal outlook for at least another year, analysts say.The industry won't grow again until people start using the networks that were built in the past two years, observers said yesterday after Nortel's stunning warning.Meanwhile, analysts say the outlook for the equities is bleak."In general, we underweight the sector and would stay on the sidelines until there's a couple of fundamental differences in the industry," said Ari Bensinger, an analyst at Standard & Poor's Corp. "First, we need to see a return to more normal inventories and, second, there'll be an upturn in sequential growth rates. In the near term, it's sort of a lost cause."After the company announced a new round of 10,000 job cuts and forecast a record loss of $19.2-billion (U.S.) in the second quarter, Nortel stock fell yesterday for the ninth successive session. It closed down $1.06 (Canadian) or 6.5 per cent to $15.17 on the Toronto Stock Exchange -- its worst finish since October, 1998. It fell as low as $13.42 during the day. The once-loved stock is now off 87.6 per cent or about $360-billion in market capitalization from its bubble high close of $123.10 last summer.Network component maker JDS Uniphase Corp., which warned investors of perilous business conditions on Thursday, closed at $12.44 (U.S.), down $1.37 or 9.9 per cent on the Nasdaq Stock Market. It's off 91.5 per cent from its peak close of $146.53 in early March, 2000. Cisco Systems Inc., another giant networker, finished at $16.65, down $1.09 or 6.1 per cent on Nasdaq. It's off 79.2 per cent from its high of $80.06 in late March, 2000. Asked if there was anything positive about the sector, Mr. Bensinger was hesitant. "It depends what type of strategy you have," he said. "For long-term investors, they can definitely take up a position but at the same time these prices will probably be pretty flat for a while. There's a lot of time to get into these stocks."The problem, simply, is that phone companies and others built networks too quickly, buying too much from companies like Nortel and Cisco.The result is top-of-the-line networks that no one's really using. According to a report from Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc., leading U.S. telecom company WorldCom Inc. uses about a third of its network capacity. Qwest Communications International Inc.'s networks run at about 15 per cent utilization, Merrill estimated. «