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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (48004)	6/15/2001 4:04:23 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Well, that's the big debate, whether all the bad news is yet out on the table and in the stocks. IMO, telco equip will probably be about the last tech sector to rebound. The main reason for that, is the debt loads of telcos, which are going to restrict capital spending for a long, long time. Look at the debt and cash flow of WCOM, T, etc., or any CLECs, and it's difficult to see how the telecom buildout gets back into high gear, anytime this year or next. The best way to predict what's going to happen to JDSU, is to follow the telcos, just like the best way to predict what's going to happen to AMAT is to follow INTC and MU (maybe the foundries have replaced memory as the bellwether to follow). OT: bellwether is a male sheep that leads the flock. Folow the sound of the bell on his neck, and you know where the herd is going.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (48004)	6/16/2001 12:39:30 PM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 70976

"But that is now out on the table for everyone to see. If everyone expects JDSU and CSCO to drop into the single digits, it probably won't happen." Brian, Stock prices reflect the current situation as best it can. Maybe jdsu will go to 9, we dont know but at 11 there are no illusions that business is currently good. There are no illusions left in this stock. There is more talk about another 1/2 pointer from the Fed. The bad news is that to get this turnaround going, we need more medicine. The good news is that AG is writing the prescriptions as we speak. As Tito pointed out, first effects of rate cuts are seen between 6&9 months after the first cut. Early July would be the first date visibility might reappear. And they will reappear for chips, software, and pc's first. I dont believe cell phones will be too far behind. And for jdsu we probably need another 3 months to stabilize. But if the market responds this summer, jdsu will make a 50% move from here that will go unmentioned because lets say at 16, it will be seen as just off the bottom. If amat went to 65, there would be far more high fives for a far smaller percentage gain. Good luck with the jdsu and cisco to both of us. mike PS Very bearish on the airwaves today. Naz has been down 6 straight days and again as it did on the last decline managed to come back above 2000 after briefly falling below it. Even the Merrill bear, Bob Farrell, is calling for a summer rally before his autumn collapse prediction.