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To: Bretsky who wrote (8407)6/18/2001 8:12:04 AM
From: JakeStraw  Respond to of 10934
 
>>Is there a price target you would buy NTAP now ?

Bretsky, I think first off, it depends on your investment time horizon. If you are willing & able to hold NTAP longer term then I find no reason not to start a position around here. Maybe buy 1/3 now and add to it if it goes down further, or it business conditions seem to be improving.



To: Bretsky who wrote (8407)6/18/2001 4:55:15 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10934
 
Getting interesting here.

I think I qualify as someone who is not as high on the stock as you are. I don't inhale, anyway.

Looks like we are setting up for a retest of the April lows. If we get there and bounce, I will probably start nibbling (long, that is). If I buy, that would be my first long position in this stock, and I've been following it since early 2000.

Actually, I will probably start buying 2003 LEAPs, 20s (= OHDAD, currently at 4.7-4.8), and keep buying on every 1-1.5 point further fall in the stock price. I'm fairly certain there is no more than about 13 points of possible downside left in the stock now.

When the 2004s become available at the end of July, I'll buy those. It's nice that the spread is only 0.1/4.7 = 2%. Can't get much better than that. The LEAP is very expensive, relative to the stock, but even if the stock goes nowhere, I should be able to sell the LEAP in June 2003 and recoup about half what I paid. That's the possible downside, and the upside is I could have a 10-bagger (on the LEAPs, not the stock). Decent risk/reward; I'd use only 5% of my portfolio max, even if the stock goes to 5, as this is a speculative play, swinging for the bleachers and maybe striking out.

I just bought a lot of EMC at 28 (the stock, not LEAPs). Their customer base is in much better shape than NTAP's, they have a much stronger brand name, they have a longer track record, and they still have earnings in this cyclical downturn. I don't think management of either NTAP or EMC yet realize they are in a cyclical industry; and no one has any idea when business spending comes back (although there is much hopeful guessing).

JS@cycletimersValueGorilladaytradersnervousweakhand.com