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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (1257)	6/16/2001 9:51:24 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Wally: Re: "When will we see the effects of the rate cuts?" I would say during Q4. Re: "Business does not appear to taking advantage of lower short-term rates." Bubble created excess demand and excess capacity. These things work themselves out over time. Remember during the mania you would hear that interest rates don't matter to technology stocks? Well they do matter as we have experienced and the other side of the coin still holds true as well in that lower rates will give a boost to the economy although the magnitude of any demand pick up is questionable. Re: "Does the Greenman have anything else in his bag of tricks??? <G>" One more cut and jawboning and that is about it. Re: "Has this" Bear-market-counter-trend-rally" run out of steam???? Seems like it to me." Yes, and although I see more down in trend for the next two weeks I have no opinion on the magnitude of the decline. I would just let the market take you where it takes you for the next few weeks and take it one day at a time. Could be a pause to refresh at slightly higher levels. Could be a retest. A Sox break should occur at some point and I would not buy until that happened. I believe that sentiment is the operative force in that valuation concerns are cancelled out by favorable monetary policy given the high short interest. Right now senitment on Nasdaq is very oversold so that a bounce is in order. Re: "Overseas news goes from bad to worse." That is the trend and nothing is there to change that trend. The trend will continue. We all know what happens in emerging economies when things get rough worldwide. They crack. See 1998. Re: "Don't see any high probability of much positive news......as layoffs continue (Nortell -again)..& warning-season-warnings continue (JDSU & even MacDonalds!)- all stifling consumer confidence?" Trend at end of quarter is to sell ... see December and April. At some juncture, bad news will not matter anymore. The seeds will have been planted for another rally. Re: "Only semi-good news I can think of is no short term threat of inflation on the horizon......." Yes, and thank goodness for that. Re: "Can the US consumer open his wallet & get us out of these doldrums <g>?" I just had a talk with my sister who lives in a technology belt. These folks are scared and they have their friends and relatives scared too. These layoffs are in HUGE and SUDDEN waves and make no internal sense as to who is being laid off and why. This is not a foundation for confidence. When people perceive random things happening to people around them or to themselves, they change their spending behavior. Until this stops and turns, consumers will be reluctant to open their wallets overall. Re: "Perhaps we need more fiscal stimulus than the $ 600 per couple due in the early fall ???" Every little bit helps. If the labor environment is better, then it may help more. If we are still laying folks off, the $600 could go into the piggy bank. Re: "Have a good weekend." You too.

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (1257)	6/16/2001 9:52:24 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

Wally: Re: "When will we see the effects of the rate cuts?" I would say during Q4. Re: "Business does not appear to taking advantage of lower short-term rates." Bubble created excess demand and excess capacity. These things work themselves out over time. Remember during the mania you would hear that interest rates don't matter to technology stocks? Well they do matter as we have experienced and the other side of the coin still holds true as well in that lower rates will give a boost to the economy although the magnitude of any demand pick up is questionable. Re: "Does the Greenman have anything else in his bag of tricks??? <G>" One more cut and jawboning and that is about it. Re: "Has this" Bear-market-counter-trend-rally" run out of steam???? Seems like it to me." Yes, and although I see more down in trend for the next two weeks I have no opinion on the magnitude of the decline. I would just let the market take you where it takes you for the next few weeks and take it one day at a time. Could be a pause to refresh at slightly higher levels. Could be a retest. A Sox break should occur at some point and I would not buy until that happened. I believe that sentiment is the operative force in that valuation concerns are cancelled out by favorable monetary policy given the high short interest. Right now senitment on Nasdaq is very oversold so that a bounce is in order. Re: "Overseas news goes from bad to worse." That is the trend and nothing is there to change that trend. The trend will continue. We all know what happens in emerging economies when things get rough worldwide. They crack. See 1998. Re: "Don't see any high probability of much positive news......as layoffs continue (Nortell -again)..& warning-season-warnings continue (JDSU & even MacDonalds!)- all stifling consumer confidence?" Trend at end of quarter is to sell ... see December and April. At some juncture, bad news will not matter anymore. The seeds will have been planted for another rally. Re: "Only semi-good news I can think of is no short term threat of inflation on the horizon......." Yes, and thank goodness for that. Re: "Can the US consumer open his wallet & get us out of these doldrums <g>?" I just had a talk with my sister who lives in a technology belt. These folks are scared and they have their friends and relatives scared too. These layoffs are in HUGE and SUDDEN waves and make no internal sense as to who is being laid off and why. This is not a foundation for confidence. When people perceive random things happening to people around them or to themselves, they change their spending behavior. Until this stops and turns, consumers will be reluctant to open their wallets overall. If this trend continues, then the trend will be down for consumer confidence. Re: "Perhaps we need more fiscal stimulus than the $ 600 per couple due in the early fall ???" Every little bit helps. If the labor environment is better, then it may help more. If we are still laying folks off, the $600 could go into the piggy bank. Re: "Have a good weekend." You too.

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (1257)	6/19/2001 5:27:38 PM
From: Wally Mastroly	Respond to of 10065

Greenspan testimony to get close scrutiny WASHINGTON (Reuters) — U.S. lawmakers get a chance to sound out Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Wednesday about the economy's shaky prospects only days before policymakers gather for a key meeting on interest rate policy. The U.S. central bank chief is to appear before the Senate Banking Committee at 10 a.m. ET, part of a panel testifying on the banking system. It will be Greenspan's first appearance before the committee since control of the Senate shifted to the Democrats from Republicans on June 5. As a result, its chairmanship is now held by sometimes combative Democratic Sen. Paul Sarbanes of Maryland instead of Republican Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas. Greenspan's prepared testimony is expected to focus closely on banking matters. Questioners afterward, however, are certain to try to probe his thinking ahead of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee which will be held next Tuesday and Wednesday. The Fed has cut U.S. short-term interest rates five times — by a half-percentage point each time — already this year. Two of those cuts took place outside of regularly scheduled rate-setting meetings. The most recent reduction followed the FOMC's scheduled May 15 meeting, and anticipation is high that another cut of a quarter- to half-percentage point will be announced next Wednesday at the conclusion of the FOMC gathering. "Since the last rate cut, the economic reports have remained at best mixed," said economist Sung Won Sohn of Wells Fargo Bank in Minneapolis, with little or no improvement in two key measures of activity that the Fed is monitoring. "Clearly consumer spending is very weak and business capital spending is falling off the chair," Sohn said, adding that he expected another half-percentage point rate reduction next week. "I'm assuming the June cut is the end of the easing cycle," he added. He said this would be partly because the Fed wants to allow the cumulative impact of past rate cuts to work their way into economic activity during the second half of the year, around the same time that personal income tax rebates and permanent tax rate reductions begin to be felt. The national economy, measured by gross domestic product, grew at a relatively slow 1.3% annual rate in the first quarter and has remained sluggish in the second quarter, though most analysts look for a modest pickup during the second half. Last Friday, the Fed reported that U.S. industrial output slumped 0.8% in May, an eighth straight monthly decline, as businesses ran at their weakest operating rates since 1983. That followed a Commerce Department report on Thursday that a 0.5% drop in April business sales prevented businesses from selling down bloated inventories, a necessary precondition before companies begin to ramp up production levels once more.