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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18142)	6/16/2001 12:00:01 PM
From: Steve Lee	Respond to of 30051

Nortel (NT) If Nortel's book value at the end of last Q was $29.2B and they are making a $19.2B loss this quarter, how far away is CH11? I am assuming that the $19.2B loss just preannounced includes the charges for laying off the 30,000 employees so next Q's loss may not be as large - but I don't see how they can turn this around before reaching negative book value. Also consider that the book value calculated end of last Q was likely to be pricing certain assets at values higher than they would fetch today. New low yesterday but the stock managed to recover about half its loss. If that low is breached yet again, I will be likely to short NT. Or will the gap created yesterday ever be closed?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18142)	6/16/2001 12:39:55 PM
From: J L Segal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev, any predictions regarding ORCL's report after the close on Monday? Also, you sold RDRT after it broke $5 recently .........when would you see it as a "buy" again? Mgt was surprisingly tight lipped about the future in their last conference call. For this reason, do you think it would be most prudent to wait for this quarter's earnings results before going long again? As always, your input is greatly appreciated, JLS

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18142)	6/16/2001 12:52:57 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Actually, Zeev, I think you guys are almost in agreement about the low if it comes in October. With the weakness in the network infrastructure business as well as other sectors, a bottom in October appears to have a better than 50-50 chance of happening, IMO. If the bottom happens in October, I think you'd have to give 50-50-odds to a 1400 bottom. I think what he's saying is that we're gradually dropping to an October bottom, calculating the Fib retraces at 50% to maintain the drop. If we have an October low, it might develop as 1850-2050-1636-1850-1600(1400).