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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (5294)	6/16/2001 4:04:45 PM
From: Second_Titan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Jim_P What probability do you give you OSX especially drillers rallying close to recent highs by September? Since oil drilling has not attracted much attention with 3/4 of activity gas focused, why wont the cycle be maintained by shifting emphasis to oil drilling? It seems your take on NG is quite extreme and does not leave much room for demand returning at NG $3.25 and/or a continuation of warmer than normal weather. Time will tell but Summer is here and NG is still $4 ~. Alan Abelson in Barrons commented on Bob Farrell who he says has been very accurate in forecasting recent market trends. His comments sound very similar to what I gather as a consensus here. Rally in the Summer and bleed hard after, he is a bit more bearish saying the NAZ may set new lows. Based on last September - November experience I may be only long in a significant way for another 4-6 weeks or so until my holdings close in on recent highs or until I think it wont get any better. From there it is USPIX and other short tech plays. It seems too easy if many are predicting the same thing. I closed out my DOW puts for a wash after appreciating the 20% gain USPIX gave me in a week. Perfect timing for catching a big NDX move, only I did not bet much.

To: jim_p who wrote (5294)	6/16/2001 5:40:11 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Jim, the daily chart is interesting on AMAT. Friday's trading pattern is called a Spinning Top. This is a pattern that indicates indecision. Neither the bulls nor the bears know which way to turn. Triple Witching may have had something to do with this pattern occurring. stockcharts.com[l,a]declyymy[pb50!b200!d20,2!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Ua12,26,9!Lk14!Ll14!Lc20!Lh14,3!Lg] AMAT broke support at 50 on the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and the MACD line crossed down over the 9day EMA line earlier in the week. These are both sell signals. The Williams %R, which can be early, is indicating AMAT is nearing oversold range. The stock has been under distribution but the selling isn't considered heavy at this point. Backing out to the weekly chart, it shows AMAT breaking down as well. stockcharts.com[l,a]weclyymy[pb50!b200!d20,2!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Ua12,26,9!Lk14!Ll14!Lc20!Lh14,3!Lg] Monday's trading is critical to the near term trading pattern for AMAT. On another subject, I'm of the opinion the market starts factoring in a 50 basis point cut soon. How's that? <G> dabum