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Technology Stocks : The *NEW* Frank Coluccio Technology Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (3049)6/16/2001 6:43:53 PM
From: axial  Respond to of 46821
 
Yes, my thanks to you and ftth - Frank, your combinant answer seems more like it - though I still question the terminology - "fundamental transition, not a temporary blip".

If he's talking valuations, then he's saying they won't return to former levels, I guess. But if he's talking technology, then I disagree, and my answer (considerably less content-rich than yours :- ( ) would be a pause, a slowdown, maybe imperceptible progress - but the transition has started, and it will continue. It hasn't morphed into reversion, or rejection.

"I'm not suggesting that the foregoing, alone, is responsible for the slowdown - or that in and of itself an explanation can be found - but it's a factor. And it would make more sense to wait, not only for the new platforms to become soup, but until greater visibility appears, as well."

Looking at what's been happening in capital markets, and what's been happening in the sector, that is the essence of the matter: "visibility" and "soup".

Saturation. Demand. The effect of a cyclical downturn on demand. ROI. Business cases. Cost-effectiveness.

Long-term, the return of demand for these services is predictable. "How" to satisfy that demand is less so. The "best" way (ie., most competitive) is far from clear. If I understand correctly, that "best" way is a strange amalgam of many confluent factors, only one of which is a choice of competing technologies. In the aggregate, there is a large number of contentious issues that need to be resolved before players can move ahead with confidence.

Most important, I think it will be a while before capital markets start writing checks again, for the sector. In the meantime, consolidation, failure and turmoil will be the norm. Capital markets will stand aside, and wait, while major portions of the telecomms market fall into debtholders' hands. Only the strong, those with access to capital/revenue, will survive.

"Like individual band members in a Jazz Ensemble at a weekend gig, they all came in with their own licks when called upon to improvise, and the genre of the music they were playing is called the blues."

Yes. We will hear some gala performances. >vbg<

So maybe the "fundamental transition" is in the sector, and not the technological paradigm, at all.

Regards,

Jim