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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (48028)	6/16/2001 8:15:52 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

I look for reasons not to buy a stock. I use current sentiment, and analyst recommendations, as contrary indicators. I never buy a stock when it is universally loved. Just curious, what would make you jump into JDSU? Personally, my best investments have always been when I disregarded TA and FA and have simply gone buying when the smell of fear was palpable in the air. IMHO, that time is now with JDSU and most comm companies. I often see or hear others on these boards trying to justify their purchases by PSR or PE or P/Book when things are very poor. However, when things are so uncertain and all of these are basically unknown variables for the next several Q's, WS is most likely discounting a doomsday scenario and in many cases will overshoot on their discounting thereby creating a bargain in the process. Yet at the same time, many will forego a bargain simply because it cannot be quantified or measured. In times like this, a sense of smell is worth more than any business degree:-) BK

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (48028)	6/16/2001 8:29:22 PM
From: John Trader	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, Thanks, very good comments. Regarding long term buy and hold not working over extended periods, I agree, but one should throw dividends into the DOW or S&P to get the total market return of course. If one also keeps buying in, using dollar cost averaging, then buy and hold does not look quite as bad during such periods. I still think though that the average trader out there tends to get blown away by the market averages over time. One reason is the manipulation by the Wall Street professionals. The folks on this thread are in another league for sure. Having said all that, you obviously seem to be a very good investor, and I enjoy hearing your inputs. Also, I am heading towards your camp - more trading. Mr. Market has been sort of out of control in recent years, and the more volatility, the better the trading approach should work. One difficulty though is going against the crowd most of the time, can be difficult. The discipline you use for buying stocks makes a lot of sense. One thing that happened in recent years is that the pros tried real hard to convince us small investors that it was a "new economy", and that those old rules do not apply any more. Recall, for example the argument that higher interest rates will not affect high tech firms, and the argument that techs are no longer cyclical because they are used in so many diverse products. They really tried to do a "mind job" on us. It was like the generals trying to lead the troops over a cliff. Of course they are not really the generals, but they wear the uniforms anyway. John

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (48028)	6/16/2001 10:26:10 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

OT Nokia Nokia is a much clearer winner in its space than any boxmaker ever was. And the cell phone is in its infancy compared to the pc in what it can/will offer. At some point you will be right and it will be time to exit. But for now its too early not to play the best phone maker. And here is another case where many industry experts say companies are being too negative about the remainder of the year business. Mike PS Does anyone think the 39 billion dollars we are getting from Bush, will not be spent? And i would think cell phones will be a good parking spot. Good bye glut---hello new technology.