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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Trader who wrote (48029)	6/16/2001 9:55:14 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

RE: "... the continued explosive demand for bandwidth, the reopening of capital markets courtesy of lower interest rates, increased telecom revenues resulting from price increases for broadband services, and the fact that companies near the top of the supply chain are working through and / or scrapping inventory." I just read the first sentence. I think this is nonsense. What is driving the supposed "explosive demand for bandwidth." I have not seen one reasonable driver argument! Capital markets don't "reopen" because of lower short term interest rates when the market is companies financially strapped with their current probably long term debt burden. I wonder what these price increases from broadband services are and what are the services. My monthly DSL rate is 39.95 up from a 56KB rate of 21.95. If there is one thing to learn from the current debacle, it is that most of the investment "expertise" out there is suspect and that some of it is dishonest.

To: John Trader who wrote (48029)	6/16/2001 10:32:51 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

OT telecom: The crucial assumption the article makes is where he says, "By the end of the year, just as demand is picking up..." If that happens, then the companies (in telecom equip, and all the chip sectors) who are today investing in state-of-the-art capacity, are going to be sitting pretty. If. The same sort of situation is happening with the 3G buildout. Various telecoms around the world are spending many billions (DoCoMo is spending 10B$, for instance) to be able to offer high-speed mobile internet access. The problem is, the handsets don't exist, and (more importantly), the applications don't exist. It's a "built it and they will come" plan. They assume demand will be there around the time the capacity is in place, and that's a big assumption, which sometimes is spectacularly wrong (satellite phones are a recent example). If you're wrong, you've spent a huge amount of money on capacity that is essentially worthless (by the time demand returns, your capacity is obsolete).If that money was borrowed, as with so much of the telecom buildout, then the company is bankrupt. Maybe I'm having a "failure of imagination", but I'm having trouble thinking of a reason why many people will want streaming video on their cellphones. If you have a screen big enough to see anything, and a keyboard big enough to be comfortable, then it's a laptop, not a cellphone. How big is the market for laptops with high-speed wireless modems?