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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (9333)	6/17/2001 12:51:46 AM
From: waverider	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Don, the important thing to consider about QCOM is that the PE you mention is really not relevant since it reflects the G* write off and not future earnings. Assuming they will make at least a buck in the next 12 months...not unreasonable...you are currently looking at a 50 PE stock at current prices. Certainly not cheap, but more realistic than the 600+ number. <H>

To: donald sew who wrote (9333)	6/17/2001 3:00:46 AM
From: jkc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Don and Chris, would you mind looking at this? It made me think that things are actually getting better, not worse. But I am new at this TA stuff, a recovering long term buy and holder...so I'm not sure if I'm reading things correctly. First, I just want to thank all of you for everything you have taught me. You are so generous with your knowledge and it has made all the difference in the world to my state of mind. From what I have studied in TA so far, there are 3 things I see on this chart. Hope this link works. It's a 12 month qqq chart with OBV and MACD askresearch.com 1. Looking at the MACD formations and drawing a line from the bottom of the April 4 red lines to the bottom of the red lines where they are now -- well, the red line dip is so much shallower now than before (the MACD red line blocks, not the Bollinger Bands). It appears to be showing an uptrend forming. Sorry I can't draw that line on the chart to show you clearly what I mean. The TA book I was reading said such a formation indicates increased strength. In other words, the seeming downtrend is in reality hiding a newer uptrend being created. The depth of the red lines in March/April are more severe even though the prices are in the same area. (for example, when qqq was trading at the same price in late March as they are now, the red lines were longer). 2. Also, regarding the red lines on top...the downward trend is clearly seen from last July til Jan of this year. But the last rally made the red lines seem to form a new trendline as they are higher than the ones in January even though the stock prices didn't reach higher prices. In other words, this last rally doesn't appear to be connected to the Jul to Jan rallies. This would indicate to me (from what I've studied) that although the stock prices are lower than the last rally, they have greater stability because of the divergence. Not that there couldn't be more downside but the meaning would be different this time than before. 3. OBV ticked up and looking at the rest of the chart, it appears to have done that before each rally. I don't know if it means anything since I'm just a beginner -- but it looked hopeful. Can't thank you enough -- the updates, charts and insights you all provide are just terrific. Joan

To: donald sew who wrote (9333)	6/17/2001 3:23:26 AM
From: jkc	Respond to of 52237

p.s. Don & Chris, this MSFT chart shows how after the shallow MACD red blocks formed from the lower ones before in March/April, it rallied well and for a longer period of time than the previous rallies of the last year. This is what I was getting at in the prior post -- according to the TA I've been studying, the comparative shallowness of the MACD red lines could be signaling a reversal. askresearch.com Thanks again, joan

To: donald sew who wrote (9333)	6/17/2001 11:52:21 AM
From: Davy Crockett	Respond to of 52237

Hi Don, Again, Don, thanks for posting your index updates! They are very valuable (& I certainly appreciate the amount of work, that just the research must entail). Not predicting again, but if MSFT was to roll over, that would be a significant negative to the NAZ Maybe it has started? FWIW, I am just a newbie @ figuring out charts... so here is my take on MSFT... Daily chart PnF: MSFT had a triple bottom breakdown of the 3 box reversal. It sitting right on recent support from April 05/01 & was turned back twice from heavy resistance @ 72.00. Next stop is 61.00 BSL (bullish support line)& 51.00 (support). stockcharts.com Daily chart: stockcharts.com[w,a]dicayymy[dc][pc5!c21!c50!c200!h.02,.20!f][vc60][iut!Ul14!Lc20!La12,26,9!Lh14,3!Lb14] MSFT appears to have broken down from the daily wedge that was forming, the 5 day ema has also crossed below the 21 day ema & price is now sitting right on the 50 day ema. -DMI crossed over the +DMI & it appears that the ADX has moved north as well (indicating a possible change & strength in the new trend (down)) MACd confirms the ADX & Slo Stoch is just below neutral & still declining. At any rate, since ADX & the price action may be confirming the end of the sideways congestion (& the break down out of the rising bearish wedge,) MSFT's chart does not look good for longs. The probability play is with the shorters. What I found very interesting about the chart is the negative divergence between the rising price & declining volume & the large increase in volume when the price finally did decline (not good). The weekly chart confirms the daily chart... stockcharts.com[w,a]wicayymy[df][pc5!c21!c50!c200!h.02,.20!f][vc60][iut!Ul14!Lc20!La12,26,9!Lh14,3!Lb14] Note the turndown in the Slo Stoch (close to 90 - extremely overbought)with the ADX in a classic non-trending mode (below 20 suggest an oscillating indicator) All FWIW Regards, Peter edit: Just saw your post Lee... Now the bad news for longs. Spending all day looking at stuff, I noticed a recurring theme. Almost any chart dropping has rising ADX and any chart sideways to up has a falling ADX. What this tells me is down is stronger than up forces in this market. ADX doesn't tell direction but it does indicate trend strength and though the falling ADX in the more bullish charts could be predicting a second leg up about to start, I feel it is more likely pointing to the resumption of a down trend in the near to mid future Excellent observation! ...Thanks!