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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (4493)	6/17/2001 1:06:38 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4583

Hi GZ, I agree with your astute observations. I have been worried about a repeat of October 1998.Studied it quite a lot lately.This IS NOT a REPEAT of that triple bottom. Earlier in 98 a more substantial rally carried stocks higher.Higher to the point where there was MUCH more profit taking and selling.TC 2000 shows the march thru august time period as having substantial selling before the bottom.Current trading show substantial buying - precisely the opposite(I think a lot of short covering is happening under the horizon). Your scenario of what would worry you (strong rally back) is what would be the kiss of death. Instead this market has been overemphasizing on the whoes of a poorly managed telecom industry that:went into huge debt,overspent,loaned money to buyers when the banks got nervous and stopped loaning ,then still built out too much equipment , and now that the music stopped after three intermissions two flashings of the lights,the bartender yelling "every body out" these guys say "the drop of is just so fast its unprecedented. All this violation of conservative business practices is being extrapolated to all industry sectors.The doom sayers are predicting an economy wide drop off. Phooey The reality of the BIG picture is: Millions are still working Interest rates are at/near historical lows Smart business will implement predrawn plans of expansion when the low cost of money enables its economic justification Small businesses(like my dealerships)are already enjoying improved profitability as my largest expense has been reduced by lowered rates(floor plan has gone from 8.75 to 6.08 - 30% reduction) Overall vehicle sales are projected to reach 16.5 million units - down from last years record but still the third best year in history.Not exactly the doom and glomm you get on CNBC is it? A huge dollar tax rebate will be in the mail starting July 23 week and tax witholding will be reduced starting July. Joe consumer will have 600 bucks back from big brother and a raise to boot both in July. We are currently in a wonderful business environment and it is about to get better. Overall market volume is low and big block trade transactions are up? who is creating the positions? not the retail side! News overemphasizes the negative and the positive expectations ARE HISTORICALLY LOW - In a low interest environment? The potential for positive earnings surprises has BEEN MAXIMIZED! We are at the beautiful confluence of negative news overwhelming the true story of a now selective business profit expansion in progress(less the telecom sector and its influence into other sectors).The difference is the reporting time lag. There in lies the opportunity. The best part is - its a short term time frame. We are coming off the biggest bear market in history - after an admitted bubble that will cripple some industries. The good news is: Wall Street's climbing the wall of worry,and last but not least BUSINESS IS GOOD AND GETTING BETTER. TO DA MOON, MY FRIEND, TO DA MOON !!! I really appreciate your perspective - ain't it great when two minds think alike.ggggg Bob