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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (48046)	6/17/2001 11:16:02 AM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 70976

We know it will not be a net negative for the economy since more money is in the hands of consumers. No question. I just don't see much benefit, even if they blow the money on an electronic gadget. At the VERY LEAST, it will be psychological boost that people have more money coming to them and may be less inhibited in purchasing a new MP3 player or the such. I personally don't think that $300 ($600 per couple) is going to make one whit of difference to the average, over-indebted person worried about a slow economy and his or her job. Mike and Michele Sherman might save as much as $6,300, or 22 percent of their 2000 tax bill, from the fully phased-in breaks — as long as they don't fall victim to the Alternative Minimum Tax. I am sure that this statistic looks out five or six years, whenever the vast majority of the tax cuts take place. My guess is that these tax cuts, which consumers won't have for a while, will be repealed as the economy slows and the surplus vaporizes. For the vast majority of people, most of the tax cut comes in few years, not now.The AMT is also a big issue. I was shocked in 1999 when I got my return back from my accountant and had to pay a huge AMT. I do not understand how you could have gone from being so Bullish a year or two ago, to be super Bearish now, AFTER we have seen a decline of 60-90% for most technology companies. The underlying fundamentals have dried up for the semiconductor companies, and I don't believe the stock prices of many, and especially the semi equips, reflect the bleak outlook. With fabs running at 30-40% of capacity, there can be a big pickup in demand and additional capacity won't be needed. The internet bubble added too much capacity, it will take a while to use it up. I recognize that stock prices should pick up six to nine months before the fundamentals, but the semi equips are already trading as if we are 2/3 of the way into an upcycle. I like the companies, just not the stock prices. For people with a two or three year outlook, todays prices are fine. But I'm not buying back into the sector unless I get better value, which I suspect I won't have to wait long for. My guess is that with all of the semiconductor warnings last week, along with companies like Nokia, INTC's optimism is already starting to be perceived as hollow. In fact, I believe last week was the beginning of a change in people's perception. No, there isn't going to be a sharp, V-shaped recovery. The industry will eventually be fine, but the stocks are priced as if things are going back to their old huge growth rates in the second half of the year. It isn't going to happen, and the stocks are coming down. The only thing keeping them up is the huge short interest, causing a small rally every time someone says the news can't get any better, the bottom is in. Do you believe that the end of the road is upon us for technology? No. I just think that many stocks are still overvalued. Many stocks are down 80-90% from their highs, but not the ones which some of the brokerage houses deemed to be at the "bottom" two months ago. And using words like bullsh* do absolutely nothing to help me see your point of view FWIW.* Actually, sometimes words like bullsh*t are most appropriate, especially when dealing with politicians' promises. Jay

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (48046)	6/17/2001 2:50:59 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Hi Brian, I'll start the survey: I've been wanting a handspring pda fo about a year. I don't carry a balance on my credit card. The minute I get my check - I'm buying a handspring PDA and getting a wireless monthly subscription so I can check streaming quotes with my Scottrade account when I'm not in front of my computer at work(2 Dells) or at home(1 Dell). Agreed ,it is justa lousey 600 bucks we'll get back.I think 96,000,000 tax returns time $300 or $600 is a pretty darn good start. I heard it and this is just recall - but I think the checks are being issued starting with 01 - 99 in the last two digits of a tax payers SS#. I believe the first checks hit the mail starting July 23 and will be done by the end of August. I wonder what the velocity of that money will be as I spend it immediately and then what the next guy does. I'm thinking it will at least be a nice plus in Q3. Tax cuts over our history have resulted in increased economic growth to such a degree that government revenues actual increase as well. This should be at least a positive, above what our current state of economy is (at least from the consumer's perspective). I am amazed that so many people are surprised by the horrific losses incurred by the fiber optic players and telecom companies. What has happened to everyone's portfolio has happened to a greater degree to the companies that were on a spending and acquisition binge:Nortel Jdsu,Csco these guys were the main players(keep in mind they didn't buy a hundred shares - they bought the whole farm).They bargained off their inflated stock for the swapping of another inflated stock.Now the air has gone out of the surviving stock and they are writing it down to current valuation.The difference becomes a tax loss carry forward which means they retain the whole dollar of future profits instead of paying 22-33 cents of it to the government on a quarterly estimate. I'd throw in the family dog on the writedown too, if it meant tax free income in the future. Don't get me wrong - financing noncredit worthy customers is BAD business and overbuilding inventory is clumsy business as well. These guys need to get there job security threatened and in some cases terminations are happening(jdsu). I think some of it is business as usual - write down the inventory to avoid tax obligations - surprise earnings when you do sell some of it and call "recovery of writedowns in inventory". It's an old game and the IRS is the short term loser. JMHO Bob Just as a side note : I believe band width would grow much faster - if the technology would change faster.I own a dealership In Livingston Tx.The local phone company is light years ahead of the RBOC's. They stream video over the phone lines on demand.The rental of video usage has tripled to quadrupled.Just think ,you don't have to stop and pick it up- you don't have to remember to take it back or get fined a late fee.People love it and use it much more.Bandwidth is just beginning to grow - what delays it is the cost to install. The local phone company expeienced $1500 per customer initial buildout expense.They are very small and like Fort Knox.ggg