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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Freep who wrote (78899)	6/18/2001 12:10:56 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 99985

Retail sales down, housing down or slowing (in what should be normal good summer months for housing. Housing will probably limp along for a while but it has clearly peaked IMHO. Credit card debt is all time highs. Autos slowing, what compelling reason is there for consumers to buy anything? Credit card companies are fighting over each other with new deals, yet defaults are way up (another sign). Layoffs are increasing (will those layed off be increasing or decreasing spending?). Greenspan has borrowed time on the backs of the consumer, hoping for a miracle rally from businesses. Perhaps he will succeed (we need to see what happens this Autumn with corporations to know). Most likely scenario is a small business uptick that MAY cause a moonshot in the markets. Next year, with inflation kicking in, and Greenspan forced to raise interest rates the party will be over. Joe consumer will have nothing left at all. Long term rates will rise, housing will have slowed for sure. Falloff in housing means no carpet, no appliances, no asphalt drieways, ets etc etc. The sign are all there and the cards are falling into place. Now just tell me PRECICELY when so I can retire. One more push down (this summer) and one possible overexhuberant push up from business recovery. That next business spurt will just be cyclical orders coming in IMHO, but the market may react as if we need to build the internet all over again. Sorry, we overbuilt capacity the first time. Next year with business in decline, consumer spending in decline, at the same time, the recession will finally arrive. This is quite similar to Zeev's forecast I believe but he is an optimist(ggg). I doubt any year end rally gets above 3000 and I think the recession hits earlier next year than he does. Turnips are far more accurate than I have been, but I am sticking with this call for now. M