To: Frederick Langford who wrote (1651 ) 6/18/2001 6:15:07 AM From: keithcray Respond to of 26752 Waxie's Thoughts for Monday, June 18th 2001 Monday, June 18, 2001 Posted Sunday, June 17, 2001, at: 2:50 AM by waxie MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! Is that the sound of a Bull desperate for some food? Or, is that a still overinflated cow trying to find some calfs to suckle on its teets? Well, if ya had asked us over the last few weeks you'd know the answer to these and more market questions. This is one sick market. Bulls tried to run it up on preposterous unfounded greedy expectations of a 2nd half rally. Now that its a done deal that we are NOT going to get a 2nd half rally the next rally attempt will be for a recovery in 2002! After that, maybe they'll try 2003! 2004? 2005? Is anyone out there willing to buy JNPR based on a recovery in 2010? Anyone? Freakin' morons. Think about all those stupid idiotic fund managers who were buying (and still are) JNPR near $60 for a recovery! Duh,as we've said all along, even if there were this non-existant recovery, JNPR is still worth $10 at most! Most people are such PERMA-BULLS that they still suspect that the market will hit new highs on the Nasdaq next year! Ah huh, and CSCO will recover to $100 by 2005!!! Right, sure it will. This is a sick market, and the more the reality sets in, the more devastating the final bottom will actually be. Just look to CMGI, ENGA and 1000 others for guidance on where you'll find your darling CSCO and JNPR and even MSFT's in a year from now. In the meantime, with the FOMC looming next week the market this week looks to be choppy but no total tank job unless more and more bad news comes. If MSFT warns badly or one of the biggies, market could bust below 2000 and stay there for a while. THe big earnings this week is ORCL,and that should provide the weekly direction to the techs in particular. If ORCL warns and says they suck for foreseeable future, look out below. If they say visibility is getting better and they look OK, market should have a real nice rally. Its as simple as that. ORCL is a market mover. So...with that in mind, the way to play it is to trade intraday as we've been doing and to watch the way the market reacts to ORCL. We've priced in some badnews from them, so if ORCL responds well to earnings, look for traders and funds to bid up other shares thinking that the worst is over. If ORCL sucks and gets trashed, all hell can break loose and we may test new lows sooner rather than later (we will no matter what,just a matter of time). MOnday after the close is ORCL< so its good for us since we don't have to wait too long! We'll know Monday whether to get long, or to stay short and kill them dead!!! Go with the market, not against it. Right now, several sectors look like death. Watch Biotechs, Trend is they get beaten down this quarter and they are outperforming rest of market, so...keep an eye on them for breaks of support chart wise for short entries. If they stay strong, go with them, however. See ya on the other side, WAXIE P.S. If market is OK and rebounds, I have a sneaky suspicion that the opticals could get a nice run. THey are so beaten up it won't take much to bounce them hard. Keep an eye on GLW, JDSU, CIEN in particular. Don't buy them unless we start to fly. Its always possible they just die like dogs, but I'd put them on your watch lists in case my intuition pays off as it has many times in the past. Your call on them when and if to get in.