-- AB: GX: Detailed Analysis Indicates No Liquidity Issues And Rev-Strong Buy-Part --
06:03am EDT 18-Jun-01 Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. (R. Chopra/O. Leary) GX TC Chopra, Rohit N. 212-469-7808 6/18/01 Leary, Owen J 212-469-7726 Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - GLOBAL CROSSING LTD. (GX) "STRONG BUY" Detailed Analysis Indicates No Liquidity Issues And Reveals Flexibility -Part 2/3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - Date: 06/15/2001 EPS: 2000A 2001E 2002E Price: 8.66 1Q (0.45) (0.69)A NE 52-Wk Range: 38 - 8 2Q (0.61) (0.80) NE Ann Dividend:0.0 3Q (0.65) (0.77) NE Ann Div Yld: 0.00% 4Q (0.70) (0.73) NE Mkt Cap (mm):7,976 FY(Dec.) (2.41) (2.98) (2.97) 3-Yr Growth: 32% FY P/EPS NM NM NM CY EPS NENE NE NE Est. Changed No CY P/EPS NM NM NM ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - $1Mn. The same xMbs of capacity can be purchased for $1Mn in a 3-year lease. GX would receive $333,000 each year for 3 years for a total of $1Mn. After the 3 years GX would resell the same capacity for another 3-year lease. This can be done multiple times (albeit at a lower successive lease price) when compared to an IRU, still allowing GX to generate more cash in the same 20 year period. The total cash flows are higher than the $1Mn realized in an IRU. Cash Flows Would Decline - Use A/R For Financing - Non Issue A shift to leases from IRUs would obviously have a negative cash flow impact. Less cash would be received up font. As we've mentioned there hasn't been a wholesale shift to leases from what we've been able to determine. Since the cash flow impact would be negative for the entire sector (if sector went to 100% leases), leaving not one company fully funded. We're not sure why a company would do this, especially in tight capital markets. The assumption that only leases would be sold next year has no credibility in our opinion. However, assuming that a large portion of IRUs accelerate to a lease structure (more than we've assumed in our model), less cash would be received up front, negatively impact cash/liquidity and Accounts Receivable would increase. This should make sense as the IRU would disappear and cash would only be received for 1/3 of a three-year lease, leaving a receivable for 2 years. If there were even a hint of cash flow issues at GX, we expect banks would step up and finance GX based on a receivable from Deutsche Telekom, for example. This is currently taking place today as GX has a bridge loan from banks to fund the company through the receipt of cash from Citizens. Thus, a shift to leases really is a non-issue in our opinion. GX Remains Liquid - Doing The Math We provide a liquidity analysis of GX based on our model and the most recent forecasts from the company. The analysis shows that the company is MORE THAN FULLY FUNDED today. We also provide an analysis to show how low Adjusted EBITDA must go in order to create liquidity issues. Our analysis shows that 2002 EBITDA must fall 35% below our current estimate of $2.875Bn to $1.869Bn in order to become illiquid.
Further, to maintain liquidity for working capital needs, our study shows that GX could comfortably lower 2002 Adjusted EBITDA of $2.88Bn by 20% to $2.30Bn and still maintain liquidity of approximately $400Mn. The notion that EBITDA of $2.1Bn in 2002 puts GX in a negative cash flow position is incorrect according to our analysis. Even at these levels, GX is liquid to the tune of over $200Mn. Table 1 shows that based on our liquidity analysis, GX is clearly funded beyond YE02 with nearly $1Bn in liquidity. We have learned that GX will receive $3.5Bn from the sale of the ILEC to CZN on June 28th. The company previously guided the street to approximately $2.6Bn in net proceeds. We have learned that net proceeds will be approximately $3.0Bn, $400Mn higher than expected. We also believe GX will only spend CAPEX of approximately $4.8Bn this year, not the $5Bn they were guiding the street towards. Additionally, we think CAPEX in 2002 will be below $2.5Bn, however we have assumed $2.5Bn in our analysis. Table 1: 2Q01-YE02 Liquidity Analysis ($Mn) SOURCES USES -------------------------------------------------------------- Cash (3/31/01) 1,384 Net Int + Div 2Q-4Q01 (533)* Revolver (3/31/01) 380 Net Int + Div FY02 (708)* Net ILEC Proceeds 3,000 Cash Taxes 0 Adj EBITDA 2Q-4Q01 1,559 Bridge Paydown (1,000) Adj EBITDA FY02 2,875 Capex 2Q-4Q01 (3,500) Capex FY02 (2,500) -------------------------------------------------------------- Total Sources 9,198 Total Uses (8,241) -------------------------------------------------------------- Net Liquidity YE02 957 ============================================================== *Net Interest Source: DBAB estimates, company data, does not included EXDS shares. Next we perform a sensitivity analysis, adjusting 2002 cash EBITDA. We believe this shows GX has enormous flexibility in the event of a massive shift to leases, a macro economic meltdown or any other unforeseen event. Table 2 shows that the company can lower 2002 comfortably by 20% from our assumptions and still remain liquid. Going one extreme step further, GX could post flat EBITDA in 2002 ($2.0Bn -- representing a decline of 30% from our estimates) and still hit breakeven cash flow. Table 2: Sensitivity Analysis ($Mn) % Decrease Implied Implied Adj EBITDA in FY02 Adj EBITDA Adj EBITDA YE02 Net YE02 Net 2Q-4Q01 Adj EBITDA FY02 2Q01-4Q02 Sources Liquidity ====================================================================== 1,559 0% 2,875 4,434 9,198 957 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,559 10% 2,587 4,147 8,911 669 1,559 15% 2,444 4,003 8,767 526 1,559 20% 2,300 3,859 8,623 382 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,559 25% 2,156 3,715 8,479 238 1,559 30% 2,012 3,572 8,336 94 1,559 35% 1,869 3,428 8,192 (49) 1,559 40% 1,725 3,284 8,048 (193) 1,559 45% 1,581 3,140 7,904 (337) 1,559 50% 1,437 2,997 7,761 (481) ====================================================================== *Uses $3.0Bn net ILEC proceeds and $2.5Bn FY02 Capex assumptions Source: DBAB Estimates Our analysis, which incorporates our latest estimates, clearly indicates GX is liquid in 2002. We believe investors who do the math can actually jump on board a massive buying opportunity created by incomplete analysis extended to the street. Questioning The Increasing Number of New Networks and Pricing We've provided investors with several opportunities to understand the pricing environment recently. Our analysis shows price declines are decelerating. At our "Backstage Pass" event, where investors had an opportunity to talk to our buyers, we learnt that LD voice prices have stabilized over the last 12 months. Domestic LD is $0.025 and outbound international is $0.05 to major hubs. Long haul capacity pricing was falling at 50% for the last 2 years and we believe it has decelerated to 25-45% depending on routes. Recently, we've even heard of price increases in the LD space by AT&T and WCOM has alluded to price increases. Prices have even begun to increase at dial up ISPs, large users of bandwidth and ports. We believe price declines have somewhat stabilized due to the rationalization of capacity, the tight capital markets forcing the conservation of cash and the exit of several telecommunications companies from the landscape. Most assets have fallen into the hands of rational players (see Table 3). Table 3: Rationalization of Telecom Service Providers Company Ticker Action ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - 360networks TSIX Cancelled pan-Asian and Pacific cables FLAG Telecom FTHL Partnering with LVLT in Asia and TCM in Pacific TyCom TCM Partnering with FTHL in Pacific Level 3 LVLT Partnering w/FTHL in Asia, other scalebacks XO Communications XOXO Rationalization of network plans Global TeleSystems GTS Rationalization of network plans Williams WCG Sale of assets, no European activity Aerie Networks private Nortel Networks cut funding Velocita private Swaps Viatel Chp 11 DTAG cuts connections RSL Communications Chp 11 PSINet Chp 11 World Access Chp 11 Pacific Gateway Chp 11 MFNX buys IRUs eSpire Chp 11 Asset sales Teligent Chp 11 Winstar Chp 11 GST Chp 11 TWTC purchases assets Star Telecom Chp 11 Additional Information Available Upon Request Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. maintains a net primary market in the common stock of Global Crossing Ltd.; Asia Global Crossing Ltd.. Within the past three years, Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. has managed or comanaged a public offering of Global Crossing Ltd.; Asia Global Crossing Ltd.; TyCom Ltd.; FLAG Telecom Holdings Limited. The following stock(s) is (are) optionable: Global Crossing Ltd.; Level 3 Communications, Inc.; TyCom Ltd.; FLAG Telecom Holdings Limited. There is a (are) convertible issue(s) outstanding on Global Crossing Ltd.; Level 3 Communications, Inc.. DBAB is acted as co-manager on pending IPO of Asia Global Crossing, a subsidiary of Global Crossing. Author owns shares
Symbols: GB;5413600 US;LVLT US;GX US;AGCX GB;AGCX0O US;TCM US;FTHL GB;NWFX GB;FTHL0O
18-Jun-2001 10:03:51 GMT Source FC - First Call Research Notes Categories: BKR/AB FCIN/TELECM FCIN/UTILIT FCSU/SEO FCSU/ECO FCSU/IND FCSU/MKT FCSU/OTH FCSU/TIA GEO/US FCSU/CBM GEO/NME -- AB: GX: Detailed Analysis Indicates No Liquidity Issues And Rev-Strong Buy-Part --
06:03am EDT 18-Jun-01 Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. (R. Chopra/O. Leary) GX TC Chopra, Rohit N. 212-469-7808 6/18/01 Leary, Owen J 212-469-7726 Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - GLOBAL CROSSING LTD. (GX) "STRONG BUY" Detailed Analysis Indicates No Liquidity Issues And Reveals Flexibility -Part 1/3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - Date: 06/15/2001 EPS: 2000A 2001E 2002E Price: 8.66 1Q (0.45) (0.69)A NE 52-Wk Range: 38 - 8 2Q (0.61) (0.80) NE Ann Dividend:0.0 3Q (0.65) (0.77) NE Ann Div Yld: 0.00% 4Q (0.70) (0.73) NE Mkt Cap (mm):7,976 FY(Dec.) (2.41) (2.98) (2.97) 3-Yr Growth: 32% FY P/EPS NM NM NM CY EPS NENE NE NE Est. Changed No CY P/EPS NM NM NM ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - Industry: TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES - WIRELINE Shares Outstanding(Mil.): 921.0 Return On Equity (2000) : 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - HIGHLIGHTS: * We disagree with a recent competitor report which assumes that GX will have a funding gap in 2002 citing a wholesale shift to leases from IRUs, macro economic environment and increased competition. * As networks near completion, shift from IRUs, a method of using customer to finance networks with up front cash, to leases has been assumed by most of the financial community and has always been incorporated into our model. We look for this to occur over the next 12-24 months, first in the Atlantic by YE01/early 02, then the Pacific in 2H02. * Leases carry higher NPV than IRUs. IRU represent one-time payments for capacity, while short-term leases assume same capacity is sold multiple times. Decreased cash flow from leasing likely financed by accounts receivable. Leasing may also expand market by offering large capacity to carriers without the high up front costs of IRUs, generating higher volume. * Wholesale shift to leases would have less of an impact on GX, as network is nearly complete and paid for. We believe negative cash flow impact of leasing will have greater impact on carriers building networks and counting on IRUs and presales to fund network build - e.g. FTHL, TCM, LVLT, TSIX. * We have conducted an extensive liquidity analysis on GX and believe the company will have excess liquidity of nearly $1.0Bn at the end of 2002, based on our estimates. This assumes net proceeds from ILEC of $3Bn, higher than previous $2.6Bn estimate. Additionally assumes CAPEX for 01, 02 to be $4.8 and $2.5Bn respectively - lower than previous estimates due to cheaper sourcing of equipment/services. * We have also conducted a detailed sensitivity analysis, which indicates GX would have liquidity of $400Mn (enough for working cap needs) even if 02 Adj. EBITDA falls 20% below our estimate of $2.8Bn to $2.3Bn. One step further, GX would still be liquid even if Adj. EBITDA fell 30% to $2Bn, flat with 01 - leaving plenty of cushion for GX. * The macro weakness has existed for some time now and is more than old news. We also believe that the concern over an aggressive pricing environment (old news) has also been priced into the stocks. Further, we believe price declines are actually becoming more reasonable (as highlighted in our recent "Backstage Pass" report). We contend there is less competition in the market as highlighted by over 20 companies who have rationalized capacity or have gone bankrupt. * We believe the decline in GX stock price has been more than overdone. Our analysis shows the company remains liquid even if for any reason the company decreases EBITDA estimates for 2002. We believe the stock price already prices in the skepticism over the financials for 2001. We are reiterating our Strong Buy and $30 12-month target based on our conservative 10 year DCF. We now believe investors can make significant upside as GX now trades below LVLT and WCG on an EV/Revenue basis. DETAILS: Recently, a great amount of confusion over the financial health of Global Crossing has erupted due to a report issued by one of our competitors questioning the funding status of the company. We understand the report cites an accelerated shift from long-term bandwidth contracts or IRUs to short-term leases, the macro environment, and pricing as the key reasons for questioning the funding position at GX. We continue to believe the company remains funded to FCF+ by 2H02. We find it unfortunate that aforementioned 3 reasons are only now being addressed as they've existed for some time. IRUs have always been a short-term strategy by network builders to use a customer to finance the build of a network. Once networks near completion, it has always been understood by most of the financial community that leases would be more prevalent. We have always worked this assumption into our model. The macro environment has been weak for some time now. This has been painfully obvious by looking at every sector in the economy. Hence, we don't believe this is a new phenomenon. We have been extremely vocal for some time, indicating that the macro environment will dictate the revenue ramp and mix at most communications companies, even GX. In fact, Global Crossing's management team has indicated several times (e.g. 1Q01 earnings call) that the macro environment is weak and the sales cycle is long. As for pricing becoming more aggressive due to more competition, we strongly disagree - based on all the research that's widely available to all. We believe even the most simple channel checks, fundamental analysis and attention to weak capital markets would reveal a rationalization of capacity and a deceleration of price declines. We also note Global Crossing management did not change or provide further guidance for this year at any of its recent meetings, contrary to most rumors. We still believe that even in a difficult macro environment, GX is still the best positioned emerging telecom company long term, with a stable liquidity position. We believe investors have overreacted to an opinion, which is more than old and lacks detail in our view. In our note we provide an analysis of IRUs v leases, a sensitivity on the company's liquidity and our view on pricing. IRUs v Leases - When? Recall, that IRUs developed as a method to leverage customers to finance the build of new networks. For example, Global Crossing, FLAG, TyCom, have traditionally signed multi-year long term capacity agreements (15-25 years), and receive the cash up front. The cash is then used to finance the builds of the networks. Longer term, once networks were built, it has always been our assumption (and we believe most of the financial community) that IRU sales would decline and leases would become more prevalent. This would imply that cash and GAAP revenue converge over time, see our recent notes for this analysis. We want investors to be clear that there is no massive shift to leases
occurring today on large capacity contracts. We believe the shift to leases from IRUs will gain momentum over the next 12 to 24 months. Our research indicates that most large capacity contracts can only be purchased on an IRU basis. We recently received quotes for wavelength contracts in the Pacific and Atlantic available for the most part on an IRU basis. However, we were able to lease lower amounts of capacity, STM-1s for example. We urge skeptics to purchase their own bandwidth as we've attempted to do in order to confirm availability of IRUs and leases. Until most networks are nearly complete, we expect to see IRUs as the main type of large capacity contract. In the Atlantic, we expect to see the shift to leases by YE01 and 2002. In the Pacific, we believe the shift will not occur until 2H02 - GX owns the market until then and will control what happens. Today, as we've indicated, leases of large capacity are a fraction of the overall market. Large, well-financed buyers continue to lock in the capacity today. Take for example Deutsche Telekom's purchase of 2 wavelengths on PC-1 recently - an IRU. Other recent deals include FT/LVLT, C&W/GX, etc. Who Benefits From Leases? As we indicated above, IRUs were a method of financing a network build. Once networks were complete, leases would obviously take hold. This is an important fact, as today only a company, which has built and completed their network, would benefit from a shift to leases (ie Global Crossing). GX has built and nearly paid for most of its global network and does not need to use IRUs any longer. However, most other emerging network players today count on IRUs/presales to fund networks - TSIX, TCM, FTHL, LVLT, etc. A shift to leases today would have a greater negative cash flow impact on most of these companies, not GX, as it would extend the payback period of a network (no cash up front) and create cash flow issues for the entire sector - leaving no company fully funded. Leases Expand Market In addition to benefiting a company that has completed a network and hurting companies with networks under construction, we believe the overall bandwidth market would expand. Instead of paying for an IRU, with a large amount of cash up front, a smaller carrier could enter into a 3-year lease, paying 1/3 of the cost each year. In other words, smaller carriers would now be able to purchase global capacity. NPV of a Lease Exceeds IRU Unfortunately, the full analysis of a lease vs an IRU has been misunderstood. It is our opinion that a lease has a higher NPV than an IRU. Example: A 20-year IRU for xMbs of capacity can be purchased for $1Mn. GX would receive 100% of the cash up front for this transaction. Adjusted revenue in year 1 is $1Mn. GAAP revenue is $50,000 in years 1-20. The total cash always remains Additional Information Available Upon Request Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. maintains a net primary market in the common stock of Global Crossing Ltd.; Asia Global Crossing Ltd.. Within the past three years, Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. has managed or comanaged a public offering of Global Crossing Ltd.; Asia Global Crossing Ltd.; TyCom Ltd.; FLAG Telecom Holdings Limited. The following stock(s) is (are) optionable: Global Crossing Ltd.; Level 3 Communications, Inc.; TyCom Ltd.; FLAG Telecom Holdings Limited. There is a (are) convertible issue(s) outstanding on Global Crossing Ltd.; Level 3 Communications, Inc.. DBAB is acted as co-manager on pending IPO of Asia Global Crossing, a subsidiary of Global Crossing. Author owns shares
Symbols: GB;5413600 US;LVLT US;GX US;AGCX GB;AGCX0O US;TCM US;FTHL GB;NWFX GB;FTHL0O
18-Jun-2001 10:03:51 GMT Source FC - First Call Research Notes Categories: BKR/AB FCIN/TELECM FCIN/UTILIT FCSU/SEO FCSU/ECO FCSU/IND FCSU/MKT FCSU/OTH FCSU/TIA GEO/US FCSU/CBM GEO/NME -- AB: GX: Detailed Analysis Indicates No Liquidity Issues And Rev-Strong Buy-Part --
06:04am EDT 18-Jun-01 Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. (R. Chopra/O. Leary) GX TC Chopra, Rohit N. 212-469-7808 6/18/01 Leary, Owen J 212-469-7726 Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - GLOBAL CROSSING LTD. (GX) "STRONG BUY" Detailed Analysis Indicates No Liquidity Issues And Reveals Flexibility -Part 3/3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - Date: 06/15/2001 EPS: 2000A 2001E 2002E Price: 8.66 1Q (0.45) (0.69)A NE 52-Wk Range: 38 - 8 2Q (0.61) (0.80) NE Ann Dividend:0.0 3Q (0.65) (0.77) NE Ann Div Yld: 0.00% 4Q (0.70) (0.73) NE Mkt Cap (mm):7,976 FY(Dec.) (2.41) (2.98) (2.97) 3-Yr Growth: 32% FY P/EPS NM NM NM CY EPS NENE NE NE Est. Changed No CY P/EPS NM NM NM ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - Northpoint Chp 11 AT&T purchase ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: DBAB estimates We're not sure how one could even approach the notion that there has actually been an increase in new capacity as all evidence points to the elimination of potential capacity and the rationalization of the balance -- all driving to a rational price environment. VALUATION - The Opportunity You've Been Waiting For We believe the decline in GX stock price has been more than overdone. Our analysis shows the company remains liquid even if the company had to decrease EBITDA estimates for 2002. We believe the stock price already prices in the skepticism over the financials for 2001. We've indicated several times that the revenue mix will be dictated by the macro environment and is likely to be a moving target. As for the overall numbers, we believe they are aggressive but still achievable. We expect further clarity at the 2Q01 conference call in late July/early August, as we've written in the past We are reiterating our Strong Buy and $30 12-month target based on our 10 year conservative DCF. We now believe investors can make significant upside as GX now trades below LVLT and WCG on an EV/Revenue basis. Multiples Of MNOs At The Close On 06/15/01 Price EV/01E EV/01Rev EV/01E EV/EBITDA EV/01E 06/15/01 Adj Rev /Grwth Adj EBITDA /Grwth Net PP&E ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - FLAG Telecom 5.54 0.8x 3.8x 1.0x 6.1x 0.3x TyCom 15.00 2.3x 9.3x 7.7x 14.1x 3.0x Level 3 7.62 2.7x 7.3x 9.6x 8.9x 0.6x Global Crossing 8.66 2.4x 8.9x 8.5x 26.6x 1.3x Asia Global Cross 5.95 5.9x 13.1x 15.8x 35.1x 1.3x --no DBAB coverage------------------------------------------------------------- Williams Comm* 3.14 3.9x 6.7x NM NM 0.9x Metromedia Fiber* 3.49 8.7x 12.4x NM NM 1.0x 360networks* 0.30 NM NM NM NM NM
------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - AVERAGE 3.7x 8.8x 9.9x 18.2x 1.4x ============================================================================== = Source: DBAB estimates, Multex(*). Information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Opinions, estimates, and projections constitute our judgement and are subject to change without notice. This publication is provided to you for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the sale of any financial instrument. Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. and its affiliates worldwide, may hold a position or act as market maker in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein or act as advisor or lender to such issuer. Transactions should be executed through a Deutsche Bank entity in the client's home jurisdiction unless otherwise permitted by law. Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. is a member of NYSE and NASD. Copyright 2001 Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. Additional Information Available Upon Request Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. maintains a net primary market in the common stock of Global Crossing Ltd.; Asia Global Crossing Ltd.. Within the past three years, Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. has managed or comanaged a public offering of Global Crossing Ltd.; Asia Global Crossing Ltd.; TyCom Ltd.; FLAG Telecom Holdings Limited. The following stock(s) is (are) optionable: Global Crossing Ltd.; Level 3 Communications, Inc.; TyCom Ltd.; FLAG Telecom Holdings Limited. There is a (are) convertible issue(s) outstanding on Global Crossing Ltd.; Level 3 Communications, Inc.. DBAB is acted as co-manager on pending IPO of Asia Global Crossing, a subsidiary of Global Crossing. Author owns shares First Call Corporation, a Thomson Financial company. All rights reserved. 888.558.2500
Symbols: GB;5413600 US;LVLT US;GX US;AGCX GB;AGCX0O US;TCM US;FTHL GB;NWFX GB;FTHL0O
18-Jun-2001 10:05:00 GMT Source FC - First Call Research Notes Categories: BKR/AB FCIN/TELECM FCIN/UTILIT FCSU/SEO FCSU/ECO FCSU/IND FCSU/MKT FCSU/OTH FCSU/TIA GEO/US FCSU/CBM GEO/NME |