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To: MikeM54321 who wrote (11462)	6/18/2001 2:02:09 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12823

Hi Mike, Isn't data traffic still doubling in the neighborhood of 100 to 150 days? Here's a definitive white paper on the matter, written November, 2000: research.att.com Here's a compilation of Odlyzko's other works: research.att.com ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ You really must learn to distinguish between bits and bucks. If your raw metric is the number of bits flying through the cloud, you may be close to right. But, think about it. One of the largest bit-burners the universe has ever seen is Napster. Where's the profit? None to be seen. This service is parasitic upon not only the recording industry, but on the pipeline services of the SPs, be they ISPs or PSTN carriers. There's a word of difference between a Napster bit and tolled voice minute on a 10 10 xxx service. The latter is paying for itself, the former is a net drain on SP EBITDA. So, in brief, bits don't matter as a metric for network profitability, viability or future projections. What matters is EBITDA, and in that realm, what you are finding is a vast retrenchment. xDSL new subscription rate is declining. Cable modem new subscriber rate is declining. This is not in absolute numbers, but in the rate of change. Furthermore, over the weekend, I read in one of my articles (sorry, lost the URL reference - maybe someone here can recall this?) that the actual overall number of nodes connected to the Internet in the USA declined in the most recent quarter for the first time ever. This is significant, if true, because it indicates that the Internet "fad" may well and truly be ending. Best, Ray :)

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (11462)	6/18/2001 11:19:30 PM
From: axial	Respond to of 12823

Study: Web fails to impress most people By Reuters June 14, 2001, 11:15 a.m. PT news.cnet.com OTTAWA--The Internet may seem all-pervasive, but billions of people around the world are not surfing the Web because of a lack of interest, need, money and equipment, according to a survey released Thursday. The No. 1 reason for not being on the Internet--given by 40 percent of respondents--is that they have no need to. Lack of a computer keeps 33 percent away, and a lack of interest was cited by 25 percent, according to the survey, done in 30 countries by research firm Ipsos-Reid. The survey estimates that only 6 percent of the world's 6 billion people are on the Internet, based on projections from a string of research groups. "In the developed world, a substantial number of people who could very easily go online have decided not to," Ipsos-Reid Senior Vice President Brian Cruikshank said in a statement. "They see no compelling reason to be on the Web. The hype and the promise of the Internet clearly hasn't impressed them--not yet at least." For 16 percent of people who don't use the Internet, the biggest barrier is not understanding how to; 12 percent cited cost as an obstacle, and 10 percent said it was a lack of time. The survey polled residents in the United States, Japan, western Europe, English-speaking countries outside the United States, Ibero-America, Asia and several other countries including Egypt, Russia, India and China. About 400 million people use the Web daily, with 65 percent of Sweden's population using the Internet frequently, followed by 60 percent in Canada and 59 percent in the United States, Ipsos-Reid said. In contrast, only 9 percent of urban India's population are frequent Internet users, 13 percent of Turkey's citizens, and 6 percent of people in urban Russia, where 83 percent of citizens said they had no Internet access. "In nascent, less-developed markets, the cost of accessing the Internet competes with the cost for basic necessities, and access availability is very limited outside urban areas," Cruikshank said. In certain parts of the world, people who want to surf the Web outweigh those with Internet access. Those countries include South Korea and urban markets in Malaysia, India, Mexico and South Africa, the study found. "Far from being dead, the Internet has a large growth potential everywhere, but progress is destined to be slower than its most enthusiastic advocates might have envisioned a few years ago," Cruikshank said. The study showed that on average, 98 percent of respondents had a television, 51 percent a mobile phone, 48 percent a home computer, and 36 percent home Internet access. Story Copyright © 2001 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.