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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (48096)	6/18/2001 2:58:46 PM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, I agree. The fact that the markets are often extremely inefficient on a short term basis means opportunity for good investors/traders. Employment is really holding up pretty well, agree that is a big factor with the consumer. Regarding Housing: There was an article segment by briefing a while back that argued that home prices tend to lag market declines by a couple of years or so. Interesting, I have not heard this argument before. I pasted it below. John From Briefing.com, May 2, 2001: Housing Market If you're pinning your hopes on the robust housing sector to keep the economy from slipping into recession - forget about it... Housing is a lagging indicator... Remember the late-80s, early-90s? After the stock market crash of 1987, the real estate market held up remarkably well for about 12 to 18 months... But within 3 years the market was noticeably soft, and it took about another 2 years before the market bottomed... In New York City real estate prices plunged as much as 60%... Given the hyper-inflated prices of west and east coast real estate (in particular) over the past few years, should we expect anything different this time around? In short, no... It will take time to unfold, but the housing sector will break... Let's just hope that by the time it does that the manufacturing and technology sectors are back on track... If you're holding housing stocks such as Pulte (PHM), Ryland (RYL), Centex (CTX), now is the time to be taking profits.