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To: Mark Fowler who wrote (7674)6/19/2001 1:45:15 PM
From: Bill Harmond  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57684
 
Overcapacity is always a problem. Look at Japan.

In telecommunications, I don't think it's an overcapacity problem as much as a technology dislocation problem. The circuit switch (from Nortel, Lucent) is dead.

Productivity gains have been real. Productivity is down lately because of the slowdown. If you had 5 people making 100 widgets before, and the same 5 people making 90 widgets now, then productivity is down. No one can fine-tune labor and capex that well.



To: Mark Fowler who wrote (7674)6/19/2001 2:03:32 PM
From: Bill Harmond  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57684
 
From Briefing: Juniper Networks (JNPR) 29.02 +0.72: In morning note, Needham & Co upgrades to BUY from HOLD rating with price target of $35; firm is aware of the challenges facing Juniper in the current environment, but feels that investors should not lose sight of the distinction between excess capacity in the transport layer and the different dynamics of the services layer of the wide-area core; also, the eventual implementation of widespread broadband access holds the potential to rapidly soak up capacity in both the core and the edge of the WAN, which firm believes should benefit Juniper.



To: Mark Fowler who wrote (7674)6/20/2001 9:15:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57684
 
overcapcity and low productivity gains for a few yrs. could mean trouble for our stock markets

Mark,

Why should there be low productivity gains? My guess is productivity will improve more quickly now as much of the technology is maturing into a more usable form. I can't comment on how overcapacity will effect this.