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To: Boplicity who wrote (2118)6/19/2001 7:01:54 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13815
 
Boplicity,
I have talked a lot about broadband to the home on other threads (Mrs. Peel can vouch for me:-)). There are a bunch of issues here, but I consider the failure of many of the DSL CLECs to be a non-issue in the whole grand scheme of things. In a way, I think that it was pre-ordained. I am not the only one, on the last mile thread, there were a couple of guys who were predicting what happened long before it did.

I am against government intervention in business as a general rule. And this particular instance is no exception. The idea of forcing the ILECs to open their doors to the competition was absurd. The ILECs took the initial risk in the infrastructure buildout, they should reap the rewards. And who could blame them for making the CLECs who were using their copper plant and their CO floorspace and taking their customers, for making the CLECs life difficult whenever they had to deal with the ILEC?

But the fact is, the twisted pair copper plant is not adequate to support true broadband to the home. We need fiber to the home, but that won't happen overnight. We will see fiber to the curb first and then a slow rollout to the home. And multi-tenant dwellings in metropolitan areas will see this before anyone else.

One of the key things that I think most people missed is that the advances in tech (in general) have moved so rapidly that the infrastructure becomes obsolete before the owner of the equipment can realize a return on investment. Class 4 and class 5 switches can last 20-25 years....they turn into cash cows. If a service provider has to buy all new equipment in 3 years, they never have the opportunity to milk it for some profits.

With all that being said, I don't think that the broadband rollout has been set back 5 years. Though it seems absurd to say it, I think that the traditional ILECs are doomed. The Cable MSOs are building out their infrastructure to support wide deployment of broadband services, not only in their cable plant, but also with their transmission equipment.

I think that the other long shot for last mile broadband rollout is the power utilities. Many have gotten into the long haul business (Carolina Power and Light and Enron come to mind), but your local utilities also have right-of-way access into your home.

all IMHO,
JXM



To: Boplicity who wrote (2118)6/21/2001 10:57:35 PM
From: DOUG H  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13815
 
Dunno who you mean, I'm in Frisco(only you can't call it that to folks that live here) They call it San Francisco. All you hear about the hilliness is TRUE!!! I was gassin walkin home from dinner last night.

Anyways, re:I/CLECS, government does have the right to mandate certain things to them because they operate a monopoly. Can you imagine 15 carriers stringin neighborhoods vying for business? The disruptive technology in voice will be wireless IMHO. Cable,copper or air? Don't need all 3.