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Technology Stocks : Global Crossing - GX (formerly GBLX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken Reidy who wrote (12053)	6/19/2001 6:59:57 PM
From: A.L. Reagan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15615

I'm new to GX, not to telco. Investment thesis here is based on the following (all open to discussion, challenge, etc.) - Market value of GX (market value of bonds + equity) substantially less than replacement cost of assets even with today's lower equipment costs; assets not likely to be functionally obsolete for some time. - Industry is rationalizing, capex way down, both in terms of capacity added and cost to increase capacity. - anectodal evidence that rate of decrease in bandwith pricing is decreasing (secularly, the price of bandwidth will always decrease over sufficient periods of time, and this is certainly anticipated by business models, but not the absolute cratering of pricing in the past several months which has gotten us to where we are) - carriers will emerge from the stock market darkness well before equipment manufacturers -- who must wait until the carriers' balance sheets are adequately repaired. - the leasing issue seems like a red herring, while, yes, there are GAAP considerations w/r/t reported earnings, the cash flow considerations are bogus as lease revenue is one of the easiest things to finance. OTOH, when guys like Grubman at SSB "pound the table" I wonder how he has any fists left after all the years hitting brick walls with the likes of WCOM. <g> P.S. All the dumping in GX is highly interesting - while some of the time it turns out that the dumper was 10x smarter than the dumpee (guess I'm now a dumpee), many times it turns out to be either a temporary market artifice going on, or some wholesale cleaning out by a FIDO sized player, that at least has an end.