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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (48206)	6/19/2001 7:59:05 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Sam, You refer to "a few selective tactical short positions." At least you agree that shorting is a tactical move. I don't like to play games! Tactical, in my mind, is game playing. I would rather play less and assume short term paper losses and forego short term gains from tactical plays. I don't like risk, even if there is a chance to be compensated for it. Risk and potential compensation require designing and implementing tactics, i. e. playing games. I like my simple strategy. Buy quality companies I know well when they are low and sell them when they are high. A few correct decisions can support years worth of profit. I like reading, learning, and analyzing. I like waiting for no-brainer situations. I like depending on wisdom I have acquired over a lifetime rather than playing new games. In the final analysis, the market trys us and we must be comfortable in our gut with what we do.

To: Sam Citron who wrote (48206)	6/20/2001 1:58:16 AM
From: KMcKlendin	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

Why don't I short? I've never shorted, and after reading your post I wonder if it's possible to defend my nonshorting policy. I'll attempt to do so. Hopefully Sam, AD, Jacob or another with shorting experience can then educate me by demonstrating any logical errors. I don't short because: 1. According to textbooks the market delivers an average annual return of ~11%. Therefore your average long, will, over time be a winner. Conversely, the probability is that my short plays will loose money. I would prefer to have the market biased in favor of my position. 2. Overvaluation may be easy to find, but predicting the Bubble's end is is difficult. It was no secret that internet and B2B stocks sported excessive valuations. One was completely justified in shorting them. Yet many rational shorts were crushed as valuations grew ever higher undeterred by reason. Had I been short, I would have lost all my capital as AMZN doubled and doubled again, and never survived to enjoy the eventual crash. 3. I am a simplistic, LT kind of investor. Successful shorting (like successful options investing) likely takes more knowledge of accounting, industry conditions, and technical analysis than I currently possess [I dare anyone to refute this point :)] --Keith