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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (43670)	6/20/2001 12:37:26 AM
From: Dr. Id	Respond to of 54805

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To: Stock Farmer who wrote (43670)	6/20/2001 11:36:23 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

John, you use a triple very to say that the market as a whole is overvalued. I can think of a pharmaceutical company with eminently solid finances which grows at about 10% per annum and sells for the same price as money, i.e. 25 P/E. I can think of a computer service company which is growing at faster than 30% a year because they have something unique going and the P/E is only around 30. Real estate stocks look cheap also. My morality forbids me from owning tobacco stocks but for those whose conscience allows them to profit from other people's cancer, the cigarette companies look like great buys to me. There seem to be lots of cheap stocks, as soon as we look outside of gorillas. I daresay the best strategy is to stand aside as you are doing, to wait until the gorillas are priced better, either because the profits have revived or because the prices have dropped, and then buy them since long term the gorillas are better investments than the miscellaneous bunch I mentioned above. But my main point is why the triple very? Could you settle for a single very?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (43670)	6/20/2001 12:14:25 PM
From: areokat	Respond to of 54805

Short term I have been thinking this market will rally fiercely. Interesting and I hope your right.I'm kinda in the camp of a Naz 3000 by the end of the year. I prefer the label "cautious" to "bearish Given the last year and a half, cautious is good and we all shoulda. Thanks for your response. I've been following you posts with interest as others have. Kat

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (43670)	6/20/2001 12:51:37 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

>> Another reason is that the macro valuation of the basket of stocks that is the market is very very very high. Which means that on average they have to come down a lot. I see that Malcolm already queried this assumption, John, but I'd like to ask you to justify it further it as well. In the view of many pundits, we have escaped the hard landing (recession) and the market has already priced in reduced expectations for the next few quarters. Supporting this scenario, the following chart confirms the major indices have shown nice progress since the "bottom" of early April. finance.yahoo.com >> This sets me apart from many on this thread. Like those over on CCforD learning how to milk covered calls to pay off margin debt. Writing covered calls in a flat market is excellent utilization of capital, John, and the strategy is in no manner related to margin debt. In fact, I find covered calls plays are most effective in sheltered accounts where margin is not even permitted. The thing that sets you apart from those on the cc4d camp is that you have no long term holdings to write calls against. >> I think the tax cuts are a confidence game. Less substantial than they are being made out. I'm of the same opinion, but I feel that the string of fed rate reductions and increases in the money supply (liquidity) will have a strong impact in reviving the economy. But outside of those macro effects, I am still very bullish on the continued growth of the technology sector, as high tech continues to contribute to increases in productivity and at the same time becomes ever more pervasive in the lives of every consumer. jmho, uf