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Strategies & Market Trends : Trade/Invest with Options Jerry a Point & Figure Chartist -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (2556)	6/20/2001 8:27:27 AM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 5893

I issued this Sunday nite newsletter with the heading MAJOR WARNING.... JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER THIRD EDITON DATED JUNE 17TH 2001 Hello everyone....hope all is well with you and yours... I have looked carefully at all my short & long term indicators on Point & Figure...I can safely say we are not out of the woods just yet..In fact i would exit any longs on any rally thru the FOMC and beyond...at the very least use stops, and hedge with puts or Covered Calls..I have been pounding the table on this for 3-4 weeks... From a very overbought condition we are certainly pulling back, but it's not enough...there's indexs and stock charts that are breaking down severly now...So i would avoid going long on any swing or position type trades...As for investing??? like i said..not here and not now...do not spend one dollar trying to pick any bottoms...Don't risk it, do not be foolish.. Please, try to THINK here...While i am not a Wall Street Wizard, nor am I a Guru, i have a solid feel, and sense about my chart reading abilities...There are NO Charts that look good to me right here..In Fact after checking the BTK--and the BBH, i would exit or hedge "ALL" bio techs on any rally..I mean it..we are NOT buying any pullbacks for now... Major stocks are breaking triple bottoms again...IBM is at the lower trading range, and could breakdown...MSFT just broke a triple last week, so did CSCO...Major Indexs have broken triple bottoms and are headed lower...Yes we may rally here because of the VIX breaking 27, and we are heading toward the FOMC with an expected rate cut again, but i am very very cautious to buy anything except for a "Scalp Long trade"...As you may or may not know..I have said to everyone that ALL triple tops and Triple Bottoms correct.... We have broken many triples all over the place..it simply means we rally back up into lower tops, or overhead resistance areas, and selloff again hard..testing recent lows, and probably breaking them substantially...I am very bullish longer term, because these rate cuts, and all the negative problems out there will correct themselves as usual...but shorter term i am very bearish here...I have warned everyone thats on this service from the first letter till right now..HEDGE HEDGE HEDGE...VERY FEW HAVE EVEN GIVEN THIS A THOUGHT...WHY??? well either your in complete denial of your current situation, or you do not believe what i am writting in these letters...just check the short sale prices from the very first letter, and check the prices NOW... It's your call...afterall it's your money or your life...I am compelled to tell you to sell your dogs with fleas, and raise capital...hedge your long terms stocks in your IRA's or long term portfolio's...use CC calls..or by puts for your downside protection...Rake in some money as we rally back up...Listen to me...if I am wrong, whats the worse thing that can happen to you??? you don't share in any meaningfull rally???..yes maybe thats true...but i am saying categorically..sell all rallies...period...So you miss a couple of points, but do not just sit there and do nothing...Write the CC's for July Options Month...take in some money...try to add some dollars to your beaten up accounts...what the hell!!!!..While others will stare at the screens all day..BE PRUDENT AND "DO" SOMETHING ABOUT THIS MORASS...WE ARE NOT IN ANY SWEET SPOT HERE FOLKS...FED OR NO FED...we have a buy signal in bonds here...try some bonds on the long side for protection...102.6...anything that can make cash reserves gain some lost luster... DJIA....BROKE A TRIPLE BOTTOM AT 10,750..WE MAY GET A DCB BACK TOWARD 10,800...BUT I HAVE 2 POTENTIAL DOWSIDE TARGETS..10,450..AND IF THAT FAILS..10,250... NAZ....BROKE A SPRED TRIPLE AND SHOULD POP UP A FEW HERE...BUT WILL ROLL OVER AT A LOWER TOP AND HEAD DOWN TO 1800... SPX...AT SOME MINOR SUPORT AT 1210, MAYBE WE GET A DCB TO 1250..WHERE I WOULD SHORT IT THERE..FOR A RUN TO 1190 AT THE BSL LINE 1ST STOP... SOX...RIGHT AT SUPPORT AT 600...560 BREAKS THE INDEX DOWN...STOCKS WITHIN THIS SECTOR ARE ALSO READY TO FALL...I SEE NOTHING THAT CAN HOLD IT UP...SHORT ALL RALLIES... BTK...570 IS A TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN 530 1ST TARGET...THEN??? WE'LL SEE...WATCH ANY AND ALL RALLIES UP FOR A SHORT ENTRANCE ON THE BIG CAP BIO TECHS.. BBH...126 IS A BIG BREAKDOWN ON THESE HOLDERS..I WOULD SHORT ANY RALLY FIRST IF IT RALLIES HERE... SMH...CHART LOOKS VERY WEAK TO ME...BEARISH CATAPULT PATTERN..ANY RALLY SHOULD BE SHORTED...THIS IS THE SEMI HOLDERS...49 WOULD BE GREAT IF IT GETS THERE??? VIX...PRINTS 28 GAVE A BUY TRIGGER AT 27..HAS R AT 30..IF WE GET THERE??? EXPECT A NICE RALLY TO ENSUE..A SHORTABLE RALLY...IF IT ROLLS OVER HERE??? THEN WE ARE GOING LOWER QUICKER WITH A MUCH SHORTER RALLY UP...25 IS THE 3 BOX DOWN... RUT...RUSSELL 2000 SMALL CAP INDEX..READY TO BREAKDOWN HERE...SO NO BOTTOM FISH PLAYS IN THE LITTLE STOCKS BELOW 10-15 BUCKS FOR RIGHT NOW..IF YOU OWN CPWR..TIBX--FIBR--SATC..WRITE CC'S OR SELL, OR BUY PUTS...490 IS A DOUBLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN, WITH MINOR SUPPORT AT 485 AND A DOWNSIDE TARGET OF 455... HERE'S A NEWER LIST OF STOCKS TO TRADE FOR NEXT 2 WEEKS... 1...BRCM---SHORT ANY RALLY UP..IT'S IN A PREFECT PATTERN FOR A DOWNSIDE TARGET OF 28 1ST STOP...AND IF WE REALLY GET SLAMMED $20.00.....33 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...30 1/2 THE SHORT SALE... 2...BEAS....4 CONSECUTIVE LOWER TOPS AND LOWER BOTTOMS...IF IT RALLIES OFF 29, WAIT FOR IT TO HIT RESISTANCE AND SHORT IT...34/35 AREA...IF IT BREAKS 29 THE DOWNSIDE IS 23....31 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER...39 3/4 THE SS... 3...NVDA.....FINALLY BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM LAST WEEK AT 91..FIRST SELL SIGNAL IN A LONG LONG TIME...SHORT ANY RALLY UP...TOWARD R AT 97/98 A LOWER TOP...IF IT GETS THERE...I HAVE A DOWNSIDE TARGET OF 84 IST STOP....96 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...WITH HEAVY R AT 99 THE TRIPLE TOP...93 3/4 THE SHORT SALSE(SS).... 4...EMLX.....4 CONSECUTIVE SELL SIGNALS..THE CHART LOOKS WEAK TO ME...WATCH ANY RALLY UP TO SHORT..WE HAVE A LONG WAY DOWN...LOOOOOONG WAAAAY....34 THE BUY TRIGGER WITH ANOTHER LOWER TOP AT 37ISH AREA...31 1/2 THE SS...WITH A BREAK OF 30 A CONTINUATION SHORT... 5...MSFT...BEEN IN A TIGHT RANGE ALA IBM..IF IT BREAKS 66 IT'S GOING BYE BYE...66 3/4 THE SS...62 THE BRL LINE...69 THE BUY TRIGGER HEAVY OVERHEAD R AT 71... 6...CMVT----WILD LOOKING CHART PATTERN??? NUTS....BUT WE CAN AND WILL MAKE MONEY TRADING THIS...DAYTRADING ONLY!!!!...60 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...63/64 1ST TARGET....58 1/4 THE SS...55/56 GOOD SUPPORT...54 A BREAKDOWN... 7...IDPH----POWERFUL CHART IN THE BIO TECHS...GAVE A BUY SIGNAL ON P&F FRIDAY AT 72 WITH R AT 75/76..WATCH IT FOR MORE UP THEN HIT IT AT THE TOP...74 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...71 3/4 THE SHORT SALE... 8...MYGN----2 LOWER TOPS, AND 2 SELL SIGNALS IN A ROW..MORE DOWNSIDE TO COME...IF IT RALLIES SHORT IT....66 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER...MAYBE IT GETS BACK TO 69/70...64 1/2 THE SS...61 IS A HUGH BREAKDOWN AREA...SET ALERTS... 9...VRSN---HIT HEAVY R AT 58 AND SOLD OFF...BROKE A LOT OF SUPPORT ON THE WAY DOWN...SHORT ANY RALLY BACK UP HERE...51 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER...49 THE SS...DOWNSIDE TARGET ABOUT 41ISH... 10...SEBL----BROKE A QUADRUPLE BOTTOM AT 43 AND HIT 38 FAST..AFTER MAKING 3 CONSECUTAIVE LOWER TOPS...IF IT RALLIES BACK UP TOWARD 43/44 SHORT IT...41 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...38 3/4 THE SS... SOME QUICK TAKES.. FIBR---13 IS A BREAKDOWN...WATCH IT... CPWR---AT SUPPORT THE BSL LINE SELL THE STOCK ON ANY RALLY BACK TOWARD 12 1/2 EXEL---CHART STILL LOOKS OK?? BUT NO LONGS HERE... SATC---ANY RALLY BACK UP TOWARD 12 1/2 AREA SELL IT THERE...IT';S OVERSOLD HERE..BE PATIENT...MIGHT GET 13 TOO... TIBX---WATCH FOR ANY FAILED RALLY UP HERE...COULD BE A SOILID SHORT..WATCHING...CHART IS STILL IN TACT SO FAR THO... CSCO---BROKE DOWN LAST WEEK....SHORT ANY RALLY BACK UP TOWARD 19ISH... IBM---A BELLWEATHER STOCK...110 IS A BIG BREAKDOWN..BUT 112 IS EXCELLENT SUPPORT...WATCHING.. DELL....THE ONLY LONG, I OWN THE JULY 25'S...HOLDING UP SO FAR..ANYBREAK OF 23 MAKES ME EXIT THE TRADE... AMAT---SET ALERTS...ANY BREAK OF 48 SHORT THIS STOCK FAST...IT WILL TANK FOR SURE... KLAC--- HAS ALREADY BROKEN DOWN...CHART LOOKS VERY WEAK..SHORT ANY RALLY UP.. XLNX---BREAKING DOWN EACH AND EVERY RALLY UP..SHORT IT AT WILL IF IT RALLIES THIS NEXT WEEK OR TWO... OK THATS IT FOR NOW....YOU GET THE PICTURE RIGHT???..I SURE HOPE SO... BEST OF LUCK NEXT WEEK....FOMC 26TH AND 27TH...THE SEMI BOOK TO BILL FOR MAY COMES OUT THIS FRIDAY THE 22ND..VERY VERY IMPORTANT NUMBER...NOTHING THAT I HEAR IS POSITIVE AT THE MOMENT...MISSES EVERYWHERE WOULD BE NORMAL FOR THIS QUARTER IN THE SEMIS..STAY SHORT FOR NOW... SEE YOU AT THE MARKETS.. JERRY ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Jerry Olson Master Class Trader... buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com