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To: Boplicity who wrote (8436)	6/20/2001 11:40:07 AM
From: kas1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10934

Greg, Single digits. Which is why I've been exiting even my reduced position.

To: Boplicity who wrote (8436)	6/20/2001 2:30:55 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 10934

At the moment, NTAP is essentially profitless. So, the stock price cannot be supported by the present (or past profits, either). The entire value of the stock rests on a bet on future profitability. Worse, that future profitability is not in the next 12 months, it's 2 or 5 years out, and no one has any visibility that far out. "Bet" is the right word to use. Let's assume that business spending picks back up at the end of 2001, and so NTAP becomes profitable again. Let's assume NTAP earns 0.35 in 2002. If investors expect a LT growth rate of profits of 20%/Y, they'll give the stock a PE of 20. So: 0.35 X 20 = 7. Lots of assumptions, I know. By the end of this year, we could be in a recession. That pushes out the time when NTAP becomes profitable, to 2003. That could happen, which is why I feel more comfortable holding 2004 LEAPs, rather than 2003s. I don't see the downturn lasting longer than that. Hopefully, I'll have an opportunity to sell the 2003s on a rally, and buy 2004s on a subsequant dip. My assumption of a 20 PE is probably too pessimistic. Even if we average a PE that low, there will be repeated rallies to a PE of 30, as the stock will remain volatile (it will be a kinky go-go stock for years). Those rallies will provide an exit point, for people who ignore (or, better yet, do the opposite of) current sentiment. I started buying at 13, but I don't think (as past posts ought to make clear) that is the bottom. The bottom, IMO, is somewhere between here and 5. I've learned the hard way to start buying above where I think a stock will bottom, and continue buying in increments, not being fully invested until a stock hits a price I'd consider undervalued. And my criteria for undervalued is lower than about 98% of people who post on SI.