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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sharp_End_Of_Drill who wrote (91652)	6/21/2001 2:09:19 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Sharp - re: am I finished with the OSX ? ... good question. Actually; I am "finished" as far as any portfolio weighting re-entry; as my main point has been that the "Big and EASY Money" has allready been made in this cycle. And I have learned that for those of us who live, breathe & trade cyclicals 24 x 7 - that we should be focused on being "Cyclical Pigs that get fat & not HOGS that get slaughtered" - ie: allways be early to the trough; but never be among those still feeding at last call"... when they start boarding for the slaughterhouse (VBG). The "Big & Easy" money is what we should shoot for on a portfolio weighting basis - in cyclical cycles imho... & after exiting from what was hopefully & correctly the peak of the big & easy money move; just trading from there on out; or just letting some of the "partial profits" in the form of far out calls/leaps ride.... From here on out - the risk vs reward ratio's are not favorable for the OSX untill BOTH the global economies improve AND the O&G supply trends dramatically reverse and quite simply; other sectors & industries have more favorable environments imo... ie: the XAU having only 15 points downside to it's "alltime lows" - but 3 bagger upside to XAU 150 - which is a level we've seen 4-5 times in the last 15 years on prior cycles. I've got more short's on here that at any time ever... from H&R block, to Conseco, to Lennar, to Nat Gas pureplay E&P's to still holding my OSX short trio - SII BJS & CAM, to some misc tech shorts. I'll close my SII BJS CAM short on the first sign of any volume buying support here - it was a small trading position - no huge portfolio bet. I've been "neutral" on the OSX of late in the 105-135 range; as it's tradeable, but not really a high reward/low risk environment for shorting, or for being long... I did well on that short play; but went long 3-4 drillers off the the big API drawdown news; hoping for a DCB rally; but didn't get one & immediately got stopped out (ie: my virgin thrown to the volcano post). Actually the only Oilpatch trade in size I have going is a "short" basket of Nat Gas E&P's that I honestly don't think I'm going to worry about covering untill next year - for 30-50% gains imo. On PM's - yes; it will be VERY hard for me to not take profits on a big pop to say XAU 72... and I would have the risk of missing a big follow thru move to say XAU 100; as I don't "chase" well... So; what I do is this. When I take profits off the intial move - 1. I never sell completely out; I allways keep a decent core LT position and - 2. I roll 1/3rd of the profits into outlying "calls" - to limit & define my downside; but yet to leverage my upside exposure to any unforseen remaining move. But; I admit it would be very, very hard for me to hold NEM for example past $30 etc... or, HGMCY past $8, or $10, or KGC past $2/$3... I guess we'll have to cross that bridge when we get there (VBG).