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Technology Stocks : IDT *(idtc) following this new issue?* -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 613 who wrote (23985)	6/20/2001 3:40:57 PM
From: Hawaii60	Respond to of 30916

613, you got that right. Here is some of what I think as posted on the private board. 1. jtech, margins hawaii60_60 6/20/01 12:31 am I would give them a break on margins myself. Here is why. EVERYBODY in any aspect of the telecom sector is experiencing margin erosion right now. Analysts hate margin erosion because it always signals either receivable problems or competitive pressure on rates. That's not the case with NTOP. I don't believe that least cost routing software glitch story for a second. What caused the margin erosion for NTOP was Yahoo and MSN period. They took on that business in order to freeze the competition out and eventually be able to charge for it and it overwhelmed them. Even though they renegotiated their deal with yahoo about the time they reported earnings on March 19th for the quarter ending January 31st, they were already almost two months into the quarter they just reported. So even if the yahoo people started paying they didn't do so until the Q was almost over and MSN was not renegotiated at that point either. They were giving MSN free minutes for the entire Q just reported and MSN has a TON more minutes than yahoo. The end result was a huge headache for them and a panicked renegotiation with both yahoo and MSN but not before the free minutes exceeded by millions and millions of minutes what NTOP had estimated they could possibly be. Getting back to my point though, analysts hate margin deterioration because it signals receivable problems or competitive pressures invariably in the telecom sector. That is not the case here. What NTOP did here they did deliberately (albeit, they might not have had they realized the costs) and its now fixed. They are almost two months into this Q and they've assured us that margins are tracking at 30%. If that's true, they will even improve from there because they JUST renegotiated the MSN deal. IBAS would kill for 30% margins, so would ITXC. It's over double what either of them make now. I've always said the only way those companies will make it is to either have a retail mix or added high income services such as voice messaging etc. Well, now NTOP which is retail has a wholesale mix. That mix will cost us margins in some respects but also drive higher margin business to us from upgrades etc. Final point is that I don't think we will ever see 40%+ margins again. Not if we are also wholesaling. We may get it up to 35-38% but that is it with wholesale. I can live with that as long as it accomplishes the goal of keeping others out. Maybe someday in the future licensing revenue when added will take us up to even 50% but don't count on mid 40 gross margins for a while. 2. Re: jtech hawaii60_60 6/20/01 1:13 am Why don't you tell us howe you really feel. lol Agree on management but still think you give them a break on margins. They had NO idea what they were getting into in minutes with yahoo and ntop and were overwhelmed. Their software probably didn't count that high. They were used to monitoring normal minutes. This thing took them some time to wrestle. Look at IDT. I have friends who have been using their LD for over a year and still no bill. The question is and I don't know the answer. DO YOU BELIEVE that NTOP is on track right now at 30%. If you do, the stock is going up next Q for certain. If not, time to sell.

To: 613 who wrote (23985)	6/20/2001 6:38:08 PM
From: BinkY2K	Respond to of 30916

613, annual meetings. A few years ago, I remember not only going to the IDT annual meeting but arranging to meet quite a few of the folks who posted here, on Yahoo and/or Raging Bull. Those were the days. Lots of excited people. A great selling job by HJ of what the future looked like. For some reason, I no longer feel interested in going. Anyone go last year? Anyone plan on going this year? I went to the REFR annual meeting last Thursday and it was better than that. As 613 mentions, they made firm commitments based on what their licensees had promised them and then took the most conservative evaluation and only said what would happen if things were late and half the companies were lying! LOL! We talk a lot here about margins for IDT and NTOP. They are very important and these companies seem not to be aware of that. Frankly, their management is hard to approach and I no longer bother. At REFR, I feel like part of the team and I own between 1% and 5% of the company, so maybe I am. LOL! The concept of margin literally makes no sense. Their costs are relatively fixed and their earnings will be based on royalties from other companies who put up all the capital and workers. The most amazing part is out nemesis, who has been shorting heavily, identified himself as Manuel Asensio. It is amazing that this is a SELLING POINT in getting people to BUY. Everyone wants to screw the Ass,man. I disagree with 613 and it is not a one horse company. I can name dozens of horses and someday, may get new ones based on patents my name will be on! LOL! Permit me to come back to the local topic. My goal is not to make anyone here buy or sell. Plenty of you guys have joined me. Even imitators follow me. Hawaii is aware one of his more toxic Yahoo imitators is there and posting with a signature consisting of his real email address. I consider that to be an unfair tactic. I want to notify Hacky that his imitator has also joined to annoy us. Since I am fairly certain these imitators are shorts and possibly working with Asensio or brought in by his laughable toilet Papers that contain nothing damning and make HIM look foolish, I open a question. Do you guys think IDt and NTOP had serious organized shorts going in and out of the stocks at the same times as some of these posters appear. We had a plague of tarots at one time, for example? Are any of these people in the stock now? Anyone follow the monthly short interest? Right now, IDT may be being hit by the philanthropic Jonas foundation who seems to be selling (or has sold?) a few hundred thousand shares. Are these common or B shares? Are they part of what has been driving the price back after all that wasted news and this idiotic split? I suggest that anyone who wants to talk REFR, except in passing, join me in private or on the REFR board. hawaii60@aol.com (Just kidding! bink@ragingbull.com)