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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18399)	6/20/2001 2:12:23 PM
From: Fiscally Conservative	Respond to of 30051

Zeev What are your thoughts on MFNX? The market has clobbered this stock. Wondering where a bottom might form Bill

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18399)	6/20/2001 7:53:20 PM
From: dwayanu	Respond to of 30051

...EXDS...I almost pushed the buy button when it breached $2... Personally, I did, got $2.02 <g>. Merrill today also noted that EXDS' minimum 'maintenance cap-ex' is about $150 million a year, so total $450M/year that has to be serviced by EBITDA or cash reserves. Long term debt of $3.4B doesn't come due until 2008, and stock options (110 million) and convertible bonds are both not exercisable until about $20/sh. At $2/sh, market cap is $1.1B. Reduced sales estimates are $1.3B for this year, with a slightly negative EBITDA. Merrill said EXDS is still 'fully funded' even if EXDS repays its bank loan (because of EBITDA covenants), unless business trends get considerably worse. This evening, EXDS warned, announced that it is repaying that loan, and said it is funded until net cash positive in late 2002, assuming no further financing. (ummmm, walking a tightrope here) siliconinvestor.com Importantly, Merrill shows institutional ownership of the float has dropped from 85% in March to 5%, so past trading patterns are pretty much out the window now -- new game. Stock is holding around 2.15 AH. After dropping from around $7 in the last week, a 35% DCB would take us to about 3.75/sh. - Dway