THE MOMENTUM OF PRESIDENT BUSH
From the RNC:
Dear Friends:
On Tuesday night, Republican Randy Forbes was elected to represent one of the most competitive, Democratic-leaning districts in America: Virginia's 4th Congressional District. President Clinton won the 4th district in 1992 and 1996, and Republican Senate candidates lost the
district in 1998 and 2000 (even while they won statewide).
Despite the tough odds, Randy Forbes won a hard fought election on the strength of a positive message of furthering the programs and policies of President Bush. While his Democrat opponent used scare tactics and
negative campaigning, Forbes won the district by more than 5,000 votes.
The media labeled this election as a referendum on President Bush. Democrats were desperate to win, but Republicans won another victory in a
swing district.
To give you a bit of historical perspective, there have been 78 special elections over the past 25 years. Only 19 of those special elections resulted in a change of party representation for the seat, and only three of those 19 swung toward the party of the President. Historical odds
were not in his favor, but Representative-elect Forbes defied the odds.
So what does this history-defying Republican victory mean to us on a national level? The Forbes victory is proof positive of the continuing nationwide momentum across the political spectrum for President Bush's
agenda for America...............................
Jim Gilmore
Chairman, Republican National Committee
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Background on VA-04 Special Election
June 20, 2001
Upset in Virginia Special Election
A Victory for White House & National GOP
Republican Team Pulls Together, Victory a Model for
'01 and '02 Elections
-- Last night, Randy Forbes was elected to represent Virginia's 4th district, receiving 52.1% (70,926 votes) to Democrat Louise Lucas' 47.9% (65,189 votes). This election is a swing district-President Clinton won the district by 1% in 1992 and 7% in 1996, while President Bush won the
district by less than 1,000 votes.
-- In the past 25 years, there have been 78 special elections. Only 19 resulted in a change of party representation for the seat, and of the 19, only 3 swung toward the party of the President. Now 4.
-- President Bill Clinton pre-recorded thousands of turnout calls for this special election.
-- The voters embraced the President's policies.
-- Most importantly the President's policies were embraced in a moderate swing district drawn by Democrats, further evidence that President Bush is addressing the issues that affect and unite everyone.
-- Randy Forbes ran on the programs, policies and momentum of President Bush. Randy ran on moving the President's policies forward and now the results are in and the outcome is clear.
-- Media pundits recognized that this would be a referendum on the President.
Bob Novak, of The Chicago Sun-Times: "A mailing came out from the Democratic candidates...saying...there's no doubt who the Bush Republican will help, who it will hurt -- six million minority families and 12 million children will be left behind." (CNN's "Inside Politics," 06/07/01)
Mark Shields: "Larry, is this Virginia race really an early referendum on President George W. Bush?" U.Va. Professor Larry Sabato: "To a certain agree I think it is." (CNN?s "Capital Gang," 06/16/01)
"Numerous national analysts called the [special election] a test of the two parties' strengths and a possible bellwether for the fight for control of the House of Representatives in 2002. Some of the national
cachet surrounding the contest comes from its status as the first congressional election since Vermont Sen. James M. Jeffords' defection from the GOP switched control of the Senate?" (Tyler Whitley, "Lucas, Forbes Push Turnout," The Richmond Times-Dispatch, 06/19/01)
"...a contest that's being widely viewed as an early indicator of voter attitudes toward Bush and his policies. The result, said Stuart Rothenberg, an independent analyst of congressional campaigns, is that the race looms as 'a sort of referendum on George W. Bush, on the energy
issue, on Social Security and on the direction of the country.' Indeed, Rothenberg and others will review the outcome as a possible harbinger for the 2002 midterm elections." (Robert L. Jackson, "Va. House Race May
Show GOP What It Faces In '02," Los Angeles Times, 06/17/01)
"National politicians view the toss-up race in Virginia's 4th District not only as a possible referendum on the Bush administration but also as a bellwether race that will determine which party has the momentum heading into the 2002 elections." (Allison Stevens, "Polls See Virginia
Race As Preview Of Battle For The House In 2002," The Hill, 06/13/01)
Bob Edwards: "The election is being portrayed as a referendum on the Bush administration." (NPR's "Morning Edition," 06/13/01)
Fred Barnes: "This election in the fourth district of Virginia is the Vieques of elections. It's the testing ground for this Social Security issue. And if the Democrat, who is an African- American woman named
Louise Lucas, if she wins, Democrats are going to rightly conclude, this Social Security issue is dynamite, and we can attack Bush's partial privatization bill." (Fox's "Fox News Sunday," 06/17/01)
"Political analysts said the race would be viewed as an early referendum on the Bush administration and as a bellwether for next year's midterm elections." (Larry O'Dell, "State Senators Compete For Open Seat In
Congress," The Associated Press, 06/19/01)
"[T]oday's by-election in Virginia's Fourth District has become a referendum on Mr. Bush's first five months. If the Democrats win, they will argue that Mr. Bush has once again been rejected and that they have the momentum for next year's crucial mid-term elections." (Damian
Whitworth, "Battle Flares As Virginia Poll Puts Bush To Test," The London Times, 06/19/01) |
