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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CharlieChina who wrote (79109)	6/20/2001 7:01:16 PM
From: parker_meridian	Respond to of 99985

ROFLMAO!!

To: CharlieChina who wrote (79109)	6/20/2001 7:24:26 PM
From: TWICK	Respond to of 99985

At least you'll get nice tan on that island of yours. You're not alone. Well, you're alone with the island thing. I need my fresh mocha every morning. lol !! Twick

To: CharlieChina who wrote (79109)	6/21/2001 8:43:19 AM
From: Vitalsigns	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Nich I know I give you a hard time but I am sorry to hear about the short position loss . You are right, the markets are in a confused state with no one knowing exactly what the next day will bring anymore. I have found myself changing views almost on a day to day occurrence and have decided to sit aside until clarity can be seen. This slide all began with Q3 -Q4 1999 and peaked in Q1 2000 due to unusual circumstances created by the Y2K bug. Every sector of the economy was affected positively . Looking back , the problem was almost unavoidable by any measure, (Gotta love 20/20 vision :0) ) When companies started reporting Q2 ' 00 revenues they had no chance in hell of beating the previous 3 Quarters because the Y2K phenomenon had passed and now they were left with the reality of doing business in a more normal situation, the only problem was that now they had to do it with higher interest rates due to Fed on inflation watch. Q3 and Q4 2000 were an impossibility to meet ot beat because,again , they were compared to extreme Q3 and Q4 of 1999 , so many missed their projection and lowered their outlooks a bit. Q1 and Q2 2001 were compared again against Q1 and Q2 2000 , once again , impossible to beat and again they lowered their expectations. Now they are not giving any guidance going forward as thing seem to be deteriorating further. Next Q3 and Q4 2001 will be compared to Q3 and Q4 2000 which were still strong in comparison to today so I doubt we see many companies beating year over year comparisons but I do expect a washout period in those quarters were a good buying opportunity may present itself. Going into Q1 and Q2 2002 , most companies should by then be beating their year over year numbers and start issuing some guidance numbers. Looking forward , by the time Q3 and Q4 2004 arrive, things may not be as strong as 1999 but should be humming at a good pace, and guess what, its election 2004 . This time , The Bush family may have done it right , if they can survive the Election years ending in zero Curse. But what about the next few months you say? That's the toss up, We still have not had the official second wave of the up trust Since the April low and I fully expect it to play out before we decline. We may already have had a mini crash over the last few weeks, many of the charts i look at are putrid and look like they were decimated, yet the indexes did nothing. A few selected stock stay proped to give the indication that things are ok.as an example , Csco is now trading at 5 times NT market value, right or wrong, CSCo will have to pay the piper soon , but soon could still be 4 months away. For now we live in a confused state, everyone is right and yet everyone will be wrong. Hopefully many of us will profit from it and not get decimated by being on the wrong side of the trade. It appears that even though you took your loses, it may have been the more prudent thing to do , and money management will be key in the coming months. Those who can survive this, will have many tales to tell their grand kids in years to come. Vitalsigns I have picked up some NT (Figured if Alcatel could offer LU $10US /Share swap , surely NT must be far more attractive at the same price point).