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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (9707)	6/21/2001 12:14:01 AM
From: waverider	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Honestly I think if one doesn't consider building some good, long term positions in here a lot of capital is going to be left at the train station. I read this thread everyday and appreciate the trading styles and I know most here are swing traders...but there is a possibility soon that Long Term Buy and Hold will come back in to favor. Good luck. <H>

To: AllansAlias who wrote (9707)	6/21/2001 1:22:49 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

We seem to have broken out of the rectangle but have stalled. Also the breakout didn't have the volume one would normally see. A few of the stocks I watch as a market gauge are also lagging or dropping. Basically this rally is very suspect and though I think we are going higher due to my signals, it is very suspect and requires close watching. Reminder that tonight we get the book to bill ratio for the semi conductors at 3:00. Last month it was .42 semi.org . Many expect it to show an improvement though not for very bullish reasons. Since there was such a glut of inventory and cancelled orders, many fabs have been shut down so inventories should be a bit lower and new orders should be in closer balance to those inventories thus showing improvement. Just remember that in case the numbers are better since the talking heads won't mention this and will likely say that it is showing a bottom and thus is reason to rally hard. I personally plan on using any rally off of this to get short as I have been saying for some time. If the Book to Bill gets worse, then Katy bar the door, things could get ugly especially with many of the semis already below their recent trading ranges or perched right on them. Right now I am still holding that small long unhedged which has me a bit nervous as we try to decide which way to go. I am hoping we can punch through this resistance line soon and get some Mo Mo going. "IF" we get through here, I will start slowly adding LEAP puts but won't have my entire position on until we get a signal either on Don's system, my system, or our indicator. I will be aiming for about a 2/3s position around the 1800 NDX level and then will add the last 1/3 on a hard signal and dump my longs to be pure short. I have to agree with some on SI that we may not tank until after the FOMC meeting even though I don't think the cut will spur much of a rally that lasts even if we get 50 basis points which I still think we will get in light of no signs of improvement thus far. Greenspan doesn't seem to understand that no matter how cheap the money is, if you are in debt up to your ears already, you aren't going to go out and buy a bunch of stuff that isn't critical to survival and even if you did want to splurg, the banks aren't going to be real receptive to the idea. -gggggg- What is that saying bears make money, bulls make money but Pigs get slaughtered..... Pig From `Babe' Condemned Because of Foot-and-Mouth, Paper Says 2001-06-21 11:16 (New York) London, June 21 (Bloomberg) -- The pig that starred in the motion picture ``Babe'' has been ordered to the slaughterhouse by an English court because the swine may have been in contact with animals that have foot-and-mouth disease, the New York Post said. The Ministry of Agriculture condemned the farm where the pig, named Grunty, lives, the paper said. The farm's owner, Rosemary Upton, said the ministry made a mistake in condemning her farm because of a foot-and-mouth scare in the area. The court made the decision because Upton visited one of her other small farms, which turned out to be infected, the paper said. Upton told the court she wore gloves, disinfected her shoes and had no physical contact with the infected livestock. There was no evidence of infection in the 12 pigs at the farm where Grunty lives, the paper said, citing Upton. She plans to appeal the ruling. ``Babe'' was released by Universal Studios, a unit of Vivendi Universal SA. (NYP 6-21 3) For the Web site of the New York Post, see {NYPT <GO>}. --Rachel Katz in the Princeton newsroom at (609) 279-4116, or at rkatz3@bloomberg.net/bk