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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: tekboy who wrote (43713)6/21/2001 8:39:54 AM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
Can we form a consensus that tekboy's post about market timing should be a Cool Post and to hell with SI if they don't select it? I realize that given the jokes of the past that it might be difficult for all of us (especially me :) to swallow that thought, but he is truly deserving of the recognition.

--Mike Buckley

P. S. Someone who knows where the "recommendation" thread is, please post it there if tekboy hasn't already done so. :)



To: tekboy who wrote (43713)6/21/2001 10:38:10 AM
From: Stock Farmer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
Tekboy - well written.

Returning to the roots, I assert that by this definition any asset allocation scheme that takes into account current market price is prima facia a "market timing" event.

If you are one of those folks who will pay an unspecified price for a fixed earnings stream then I would please like the opportunity to take you to the cleaners before anyone else does.

If you will not pay "any" price, then if you will pay "market" price, then it is merely the street and not me to whom you have bestowed your unanticipated generosity.

If however you will determine a "fair" price for earnings, which definition of fair may depend on your cost of money then you must determine what you think the price should be. And buy, sell, hold or stand aside as a consequence of whether the market price is below, above, near, or indeterminately related to this "fair" price. And if you think that such an activity is "market timing" or "cuckoo clocking" or "flarping flooping" be my guest. But if you practice it you will cheat me and many pros on wall street from substantial gains at your expense.

Or for those who can understand an entire theory in three sentences: I have limited greed and so I invest with a target in mind based on expectation value. I like to keep my cost base well below this expectation value. If current price exceeds expectation value, then I can guarantee what I am hoping for by selling today and do so with no remorse.

John.

The other one. Who "times" the market.



To: tekboy who wrote (43713)6/21/2001 3:18:49 PM
From: Pirah Naman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
a buy or sell decision can be said to be based on market timing when the chief factor behind the decision is an expectation of a significant shift in stock price in the near-to-mid-term, independent of significant company-related developments.

Perfect!

Valuation-based decisions are almost the only kind that don't fit neatly into one or the other category

I disagree with you there. Valuation based decisions incorporate no such "expectation of a significant shift in stock price in the near-to-mid-term, independent of significant company-related developments."

I know Larry, Curly, and Moe, but who's Shemp?

- Pirah