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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (43736)	6/21/2001 12:33:11 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Jurgis - Perhaps we are both victims of Paul Simon's line "A man sees what he want's to see and disregards the rest" When you look up in the sky and say "hmmm... it might rain", that is not because you have seen precisely the same pattern of cloud as before. Just something similar. What I want to see is that the macro environment has an influence on a company's prospects. Not only on the price that the market is willing to pay for the company, but on the market's ability to sustain the company's economic results. For they are mutually co-dependent things. The reason that LVLT (for example) and friends are not buying so much Cisco stuff is that they are running out of money, and one reason is that the market has less money to send in their general direction. Which by the way is both causal and consequential to a market decline. This is a GENERALIZATION rather than a rule. To which one should expect deviation. On which I commented explicitly. Kind of like being able to look up and say "it looks like might rain today" is a generalization that is sometimes correct and sometimes not. It is similarly useful to look at the market and say "it looks like it might come down for the next couple of years". If you have indulged in checking the weather forecast and adjusting your plans accordingly, dressing accordingly, then you are doing precisely what I advocate. Would you wear woolens in the summer in Texas? Shorts in a Canadian winter? Why then would you have a portfolio allocation suitable for a bull market during a bear market? Same skill, same risks, different arena. If you would like to see that this is not the case, then you could look at curves or clouds 'till you are blue in the face and we would not come to resolution. Frankly, that doesn't bother me much. Again, there have to be people willing to be on opposite sides of all trades. That's what makes the market. Folks who bought at any price did some other folks like me a great favor last year. If you all had thought like me there would have been nobody for me to sell my shares to before they evaporated. And there were way more than three of us. I'm just trying to say "thanks" and help folks do unto others what was done unto them. John.