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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (43741)	6/21/2001 12:54:04 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

The events of the last 18 months should bring a fatal flaw of [strategies based on staying fully invested] to light. Mostly, and particularly in a bull market, [they are] right. But often, as in a bear market, [they] can be the wrong decision....Those who had the luxury of being the G&K originals more than 2 years ago are fine, but the well meaning advice of some of the crusty venerables here led many newbies to hold gorillas at prices that appear now, in hindsight, to be rediculous. Maybe they will go back up. Maybe a covered call strategy will nurse them back to profitability. I ask the thread to imagine the value of a tool that would have saved these new folks so much grief. Allowed them to own these gorillas. But not at the price they paid. Merely adjusting the strategy of ownership from "must invest" to "invest at the right price". To think that maybe one of the pieces of most sage wisdom missing from this thread back then was "son, now's not a good time". Lots of good sense here, but still.... first, you persist in misunderstanding why UF, at least, favors CCs. It's not to recoup his losses, but rather to generate a minor current income stream from others' misplaced hopes of short-term price rises. second, you are assuming something which, based on the best academic research available, cannot be assumed--that market timing based on macro cycles is both possible and rewarding enough to compensate for the costs involved (primarily transaction- and tax-related). Yes, it makes sense to think it can be done, but in practice it has proven very difficult for most people to do. As a simple example, you are obviously right to crow about the last 15 months or so. But I was hearing the same stuff from friends with similar ideas for several years before that, and Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" line dates from a long time ago. So--someone who thought as you did may well have missed not just the bubble (luckily), but much of the earlier bull market as well (unluckily). The bottom line is that NOBODY I am aware of was saying, "invest, invest, invest" up through late 99/early 00, then shifting to "sell, sell, sell" at the right time, and then picking up again with "invest" as the Naz was at 1600. Time will tell which approach works best, and I wish you well with yours. tekboy/Ares@gottarun.com

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (43741)	6/21/2001 1:22:01 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

maybe one of the pieces of most sage wisdom missing from this thread back then was "son, now's not a good time". The point may not have been drummed in strongly enough or often enough, but to presume that such a statement was missing is not accurate. To presume that such a statement wasn't repeatedly made is not accurate. --Mike Buckley

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (43741)	6/22/2001 12:05:31 AM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 54805

>> the well meaning advice of some of the crusty venerables here led many newbies to hold gorillas at prices that appear now, in hindsight, to be rediculous. I find that remark to be inaccurate and insulting, both to the old timers and the newcomers, who are portrayed as mindless sheep by implication. I'd suggest you review the thread archives from late 1999 through March 2000, taking particular note of the many messages of caution posted by the "crusty venerables", and the informed decision making process of the newbies. This is not the Ask Mr. Wizard thread, and we have conscientiously avoided investment guidance, despite numerous requests to do so. It is my belief that those who took positions in g&k stocks during the high valuation periods did so using their own best judgement. If any of my threadmates feel this is not the case, I'll re-evaluate that position. Based on some of the posts in your archives, I was pleased you had decided to contribute to our discussions, even though (or maybe because) your approach is so different from Gorilla gaming. But rather than contributing to the group discussion, it's beginning to appear that you are more interested in using our forum as a bully pulpit from which to preach your personal theme of "correct" investing. I draw this conclusion from the ill founded assumptions, self aggrandizing statements, and now, accusatory remarks that have crept into your posts. If it's your intent to save this "flock" from inept leadership, you can save your energy. No one's leading anyone on this board; we're just a group of equals with a common investing orientation sharing information and insights. >> I will close now and say that such a tool does exist. Nice teaser ad. What's next - an offer for your newsletter? Thanks, but I'll pass. Prosperous Value Investing/Market Timing, uf