Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : SDLI - JDSU transition -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (1705)	6/21/2001 1:37:22 PM
From: OWN STOCK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3294

Pat: We are all in admiration of your ability to clearly state what we all know, but find hard to express. Telecom spending: Having worked at a very big bureaucratic company, I noticed that major budgetary decisions tended to fall on the FY borders: the beginning and the end. I believe the major telecoms have looked at their books for this FY, and have decided to go slow on the spending...knowing there is a risk of QOS aka capacity problems near the end of the FY. Three reasons: utilization of BW less than 100%, their debt problems, and (mostly) the competition. Lack of spending on the part of the ILECs will hurt the CLECs most. Once they are disposed of, then the capex can continue, at an accelerated pace, with the cash they have saved up, but this time it is only going to benefit the ILECs. The reason for the accelerated pace is the lead time problem for new equipment and the then near zero bandwidth reserve. Some of this will be eased by the inventories of equipment we have heard of...but the stuff that is written off (the bulk of it) has to be scrapped, or maybe sold off to junk dealers. It may come back into the market, but I doubt it would be bought by an ILEC...no warranty, no support, etc...maybe a last ditch effort by a CLEC...or some third world thing...anyway, it is not a big issue for future sales, period. So bottom line, I think take it easy and wait until October...then we should hear hints of some major money breaking loose...with actual awards in Q1 to Q2 of next year... JMHO -Own PS: The press pundits are having a field day...its a good story...some will as usual look foolish next year...I have yet to hear from or read anyone that has been able to show they called both the boom and the bust...except for KK, maybe...maybe...